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Storyline · concluded · Season thread

Atlantic Season 2025

Every dispatch on this road this season, in order: the thread a daily newsletter leaves behind when you read it end to end.

91Dispatches
180Days · MAY 6–NOV 1
I-26Tropics
Where the dispatches were filed67 of 91 placed
Map of North America and the Atlantic with a shield at each dispatch's place Natural Earth · places from the headlines
Eastern Pacific only show in town with 2 areas being watched FIGURE 1 JUN 6 · I-26 TROPICS Eastern Pacific only show in town with 2 areas being watched Atlantic quiet through end of June FIGURE 1 JUN 21 · I-26 TROPICS Atlantic quiet through end of June NHC watching Bay of Campeche this weekend for outside shot of tropical system FIGURE 1 JUN 26 · I-26 TROPICS NHC watching Bay of Campeche this weekend for outside shot of tropical system Seasonal forecast slightly downgraded but still above normal from CSU FIGURE 1 JUL 9 · I-26 TROPICS Seasonal forecast slightly downgraded but still above normal from CSU
The route · every exit
  1. Exit 1 · MAY 6 · Subscribers Much cooler Atlantic signals less active hurricane season Atlantic
  2. Exit 2 · MAY 9 · Subscribers Low pressure in Gulf similar impacts to tropical storm Gulf of Mexico
  3. Exit 3 · MAY 16 · Subscribers Transition to cooler pattern
  4. Exit 4 · MAY 17 · Subscribers Another storm system with severe potential and heavy rain
  5. Exit 5 · MAY 21 · Subscribers Indian Ocean twin tropical cyclones Indian Ocean
  6. Exit 6 · MAY 30 · Subscribers Next chance of a system in Eastern Pacific later next week. Atlantic quiet through first week of June Eastern Pacific
  7. Exit 7 · MAY 31 · Subscribers Atlantic hurricane season officially begins tomorrow Atlantic
  8. Exit 8 · JUN 1 · Subscribers No activity expected for the next 10-days Atlantic
  9. Exit 9 · JUN 2 · Subscribers No Atlantic activity expected for next 10-days Atlantic
  10. Exit 10 · JUN 3 · Subscribers 10% of Southeast coastal low getting name this weekend Southeast
  11. Exit 11 · JUN 4 · Subscribers Non-tropical low to develop off Carolinas Friday North Carolina
  12. Exit 12 · JUN 5 · Subscribers Seasonal forecast updated from ECMWF for June
  13. Exit 13 · JUN 6 Eastern Pacific only show in town with 2 areas being watched Eastern Pacific
  14. Exit 14 · JUN 7 · Subscribers Eastern Pacific south of Mexico with 2 Invests with high chances Mexico
  15. Exit 15 · JUN 9 · Subscribers Eastern Pacific busy while Atlantic remains quiet for next 7-10 days at least Eastern Pacific
  16. Exit 16 · JUN 11 · Subscribers Atlantic remains quiet for next 1-2 weeks Atlantic
  17. Exit 17 · JUN 11 · Subscribers Tropical moisture feed keeps Eastern U.S. unsettled but also escapes heat into next week Eastern U.S.
  18. Exit 18 · JUN 20 · Subscribers Tropics are quiet on first day of summer
  19. Exit 19 · JUN 21 Atlantic quiet through end of June Atlantic
  20. Exit 20 · JUN 22 · Subscribers A 10% chance of non-tropical system developing east of Bermuda Bermuda
  21. Exit 21 · JUN 23 · Subscribers Non-tropical system east of Bermuda running out of time Bermuda
  22. Exit 22 · JUN 24 · Subscribers Andrea named but has already sputtered
  23. Exit 23 · JUN 25 · Subscribers Atlantic remains quiet while we wait on Flossie in Pacific Atlantic
  24. Exit 24 · JUN 26 NHC watching Bay of Campeche this weekend for outside shot of tropical system
  25. Exit 25 · JUN 27 · Subscribers NHC watching Bay of Campeche this weekend but proximity to land limits chances
  26. Exit 26 · JUN 30 · Subscribers Frontal boundary across Florida could spur tropical development into weekend Florida
  27. Exit 27 · JUL 1 · Subscribers Frontal boundary across Florida could spur tropical development into weekend Florida
  28. Exit 28 · JUL 2 · Subscribers 40% chance frontal boundary could spur system along Southeast coast into weekend Southeast
  29. Exit 29 · JUL 7 · Subscribers Seasonal outlook model update shows near-normal Atlantic hurricane activity Atlantic
  30. Exit 30 · JUL 8 · Subscribers Northern Hemisphere Tropics are dead Global
  31. Exit 31 · JUL 9 Seasonal forecast slightly downgraded but still above normal from CSU
  32. Exit 32 · JUL 10 · Subscribers Atlantic and Eastern Pacific have gone dormant and may be for 2 weeks Eastern Pacific
  33. Exit 33 · JUL 11 · Subscribers Tropics remain quiet in the Atlantic for the next 1-2 weeks Atlantic
  34. Exit 34 · JUL 13 · Subscribers Outside chance of system (20%) in northern Gulf but rest of tropics very quiet Gulf of Mexico
  35. Exit 35 · JUL 14 · Subscribers Low chance of tropical storm development along Gulf coast (30%) Gulf of Mexico
  36. Exit 36 · JUL 15 · Subscribers Invest 93L crossing Florida with 40% chance of development in northern Gulf Florida
  37. Exit 37 · JUL 16 · Subscribers Invest 93L with short window to develop (40%) before moving into Louisiana Louisiana
  38. Exit 38 · JUL 17 · Subscribers Invest 93L did not develop but will survive as a blob of moisture
  39. Exit 39 · JUL 18 · Subscribers Something to watch (20%) in the central tropical Atlantic over next few days Atlantic Main Development Region
  40. Exit 40 · JUL 20 · Subscribers Atlantic is inactive with marginal tropical waves into late July Atlantic
  41. Exit 41 · JUL 21 · Subscribers Heat Dome builds across the Lower 48 into next week Lower 48
  42. Exit 42 · JUL 22 · Subscribers Heat wave across Lower 48 main story as tropics remain dead into August Lower 48
  43. Exit 43 · JUL 23 Atlantic basin may wake up in early August as ensembles light up Atlantic
  44. Exit 44 · JUL 24 Ensembles show low development potential into 12-14 day range off U.S. East Coast Eastern U.S.
  45. Exit 45 · JUL 25 Tropical wave in 5-7 days bears watching in central Atlantic MDR Atlantic Main Development Region
  46. Exit 46 · JUL 25 · Subscribers Tropical wave next week will bear watching in Atlantic main development region Atlantic Main Development Region
  47. Exit 47 · JUL 26 · Subscribers Watching tropical wave next week in central Atlantic MDR Atlantic Main Development Region
  48. Exit 48 · JUL 28 · Subscribers Losing confidence in Atlantic tropical wave due to Saharan dust layer Atlantic
  49. Exit 49 · JUL 29 · Subscribers Tropical wave in Central MDR not going to make it, but Atlantic will awaken eventually Atlantic Main Development Region
  50. Exit 50 · JUL 30 · Subscribers Tropical wave on struggle bus in central Atlantic, quiet through 7-days Atlantic Main Development Region
  51. Exit 51 · JUL 31 · Subscribers Not expecting Atlantic tropical storm development through first week of August Atlantic
  52. Exit 52 · AUG 1 · Subscribers Ensemble LIT UP into second week of August with high development potential
  53. Exit 53 · AUG 2 · Subscribers NHC watching 2 areas as Atlantic tropics shows signs of life Atlantic
  54. Exit 54 · AUG 5 · Subscribers Closely monitoring Atlantic tropical wave for development but more in pipeline Atlantic
  55. Exit 55 · AUG 6 Atlantic tropical wave showing signs of development; more development in following week Atlantic
  56. Exit 56 · AUG 6 · Subscribers Extended range ensembles continue to show burst of hurricane activity
  57. Exit 57 · AUG 7 · Subscribers Waiting and watching weather models continue to show uptick in activity next week
  58. Exit 58 · AUG 8 · Subscribers Next tropical wave coming off Africa will be watched closely Africa
  59. Exit 59 · AUG 9 · Subscribers Saturday: tropical wave in far Eastern Atlantic with potential U.S. impacts in 10-14 days Atlantic
  60. Exit 60 · AUG 10 Sunday: tropical wave in East Atlantic expected to be long-lived hurricane Atlantic
  61. Exit 61 · AUG 25 Taste of early fall for eastern US while tropics go quiet Eastern U.S.
  62. Exit 62 · AUG 28 · Subscribers Low ensemble signal for a hurricane until at least September 10th
  63. Exit 63 · AUG 28 Quiet Atlantic tropics until second week of September Atlantic
  64. Exit 64 · AUG 30 · Subscribers A.I. Ensemble system lighting up Atlantic basin in 10-14 days Atlantic
  65. Exit 65 · AUG 31 · Subscribers Next tropical wave coming off Africa today likely to slowly develop Africa
  66. Exit 66 · SEP 3 Tropical wave remains poorly organized
  67. Exit 67 · SEP 4 · Subscribers Tropical wave now Invest 91L billowing convection and showing signs of development
  68. Exit 68 · SEP 5 · Subscribers Change of plans as Invest 91L loses convection in dry and dusty MDR Atlantic Main Development Region
  69. Exit 69 · SEP 7 Early fall cold front sweeps through Eastern US + quiet Atlantic tropics Eastern U.S.
  70. Exit 70 · SEP 8 Day 100 of Hurricane Season remains quiet for next week, at least
  71. Exit 71 · SEP 10 Atlantic hurricane season returns to action next week Atlantic
  72. Exit 72 · SEP 10 NHC spawned a 20% chance yellow hatchling for MDR into next week Atlantic Main Development Region
  73. Exit 73 · SEP 11 NHC yellow hatchling up to 30% for Eastern MDR tropical wave Atlantic Main Development Region
  74. Exit 74 · SEP 12 NHC up to orange 40% for Eastern MDR tropical wave Atlantic Main Development Region
  75. Exit 75 · SEP 14 NHC 70% high chance of developing tropical wave
  76. Exit 76 · SEP 15 · Subscribers NHC 80% high chance of developing tropical wave
  77. Exit 77 · SEP 15 NHC 90% high chance of developing tropical wave
  78. Exit 78 · SEP 16 Invest 92L likely to become a tropical depression within next day or two
  79. Exit 79 · SEP 23 · Subscribers NHC watching 2 new Invests 93L and 94L but high uncertainty
  80. Exit 80 · SEP 23 Twin hurricanes could develop with a risk to US East Coast Eastern U.S.
  81. Exit 81 · SEP 24 · Subscribers Watching two tropical waves with high chance of (slow) development
  82. Exit 82 · OCT 1 · Subscribers Ensemble systems favor developing a tropical wave in the MDR into next week Atlantic Main Development Region
  83. Exit 83 · OCT 2 · Subscribers Chances increasing for a tropical wave developing in Atlantic MDR into next week Atlantic Main Development Region
  84. Exit 84 · OCT 6 · Subscribers Impactful Nor'easter hybrid system this weekend Northeast
  85. Exit 85 · OCT 7 Nor'easter system to form off Southeast coast into weekend Southeast
  86. Exit 86 · OCT 8 · Subscribers Coastal storm this weekend with tropical storm like conditions
  87. Exit 87 · OCT 9 Southwest rainfall from tropical storms + Nor'easter with gusty winds and rain Northeast
  88. Exit 88 · OCT 15 Watching Caribbean in the 8-10 day range for tropical wave development Caribbean
  89. Exit 89 · OCT 16 · Subscribers NHC yellow hatching with 20% chance of tropical development in Caribbean next week Caribbean
  90. Exit 90 · OCT 17 · Subscribers NHC up to 30% chance of tropical wave development in Caribbean next week Caribbean
  91. Exit 91 · NOV 1 Powerful extratropical cyclones to develop well away from Northeast next week Northeast
END Final dispatch NOV 1.

Why I-26?

Tropical stories ride Interstate 26, after the 26 °C sea-surface temperature often used as a rough threshold for tropical development.

26 °C

The sea-surface temperature often used as a rough threshold for tropical development; the shield number of this road.

Invest

An area the Hurricane Center is investigating, numbered 90–99 with a basin letter, before it has a name.

ACE

Accumulated Cyclone Energy: a season's wind, squared and summed every six hours. Climatology sets the scale.