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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Saturday, 31 October 2026

The Midwest, the Northern Rockies and the Southwest The Record MP 1390

58 counties set all-time record highs in July 12–15

Across Colorado, Idaho, Michigan, Montana and 4 more, the highest readings in each county's series since 1951. The warmest was Custer, Montana, at 112.9°F.

The Midwest, the Northern Rockies and the Southwest The Record MP 1029

62 counties set all-time record highs in July 12–15

Across Colorado, Idaho, Michigan, Montana and 4 more, the highest readings in each county's series since 1951. The warmest was Prairie, Montana, at 112.9°F.

Nashville, Tennessee Revisions MP 1326

Nashville's forecast for Saturday has moved 18°F colder

84°F in the 20261006T12:00Z run, 67°F in the 20261008T06:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 16°F.

Also on the wire

59 counties set all-time record highs in July 12–15

Across Colorado, Idaho, Michigan, Montana and 4 more, the highest readings in each county's series since 1951. The warmest was Custer, Montana, at 112.9°F.

MP 1467 · The Record · The Midwest, the Northern Rockies and the Southwest

The month's worst miss: NDFD was 32.9°F too cool at MVH

A day-3 forecast of 37.0°F for October 9 at 00Z; the station reported 69.8°F. It is the largest temperature residual in the ledger over the last 30 days.

MP 1339 · The Ledger · MVH

The month's worst miss: NDFD was 32.7°F too cool at MVH

A day-3 forecast of 38.9°F for October 8 at 18Z; the station reported 71.6°F. It is the largest temperature residual in the ledger over the last 30 days.

MP 1332 · The Ledger · MVH

The month's worst miss: NBM was 28.9°F too cool at SHR

A day-6 forecast of 58.2°F for September 14 at 00Z; the station reported 87.1°F. It is the largest temperature residual in the ledger over the last 30 days.

MP 1255 · The Ledger · SHR

The month's worst miss: NBM was 29.6°F too warm at HVE

A day-8 forecast of 92.2°F for September 1 at 00Z; the station reported 62.6°F. It is the largest temperature residual in the ledger over the last 30 days.

MP 1030 · The Ledger · HVE

Dallas's forecast for Saturday has moved 18°F colder

92°F in the 20260925T12:00Z run, 74°F in the 20260927T06:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 15°F.

MP 1227 · Revisions · Dallas

The Ledger

Every forecast the network publishes for a station with an hourly report is compared against it once the valid time passes. The residuals are kept even though the grids are not.

Pairs scored
2,606,653
Stations
87
Day-1 MAE
2.29°F
Day-7 MAE
4.19°F
Window
2026-08-17 to 2026-10-30

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Every dateline above is a bureau. The colour on it is that site's own accent in the network's Interstate sign system — 45 sites, each with a colour, and this one with none.

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