July 25, 2025 Evening Heat Dome & Tropical Update
Tropical wave next week will bear watching in Atlantic main development region
July 2025 was the 20th-warmest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 75.4°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 74.4°F (+1.0°F).
July 2025 was the 27th-wettest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 3.1in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.9in (+0.2in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Area of showers with weak tropical disturbance near the TX/LA border along the Gulf coast will move inland ending the small (10%) chance of tropical depression formation. The clouds and rain will keep temperatures in check until the “heat dome” arrives from the east.
The “heat dome” is easy to pick out on the moisture transport forecast through the next several days as an anticyclonic circulation that ambles along the Gulf coast over the next 5-days. A deep layer ridge locks into place across the Southeast, and as it moves westward, dry northerly winds will bake the Southeast with the hottest air temperatures in the Carolinas > 100°F
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