September 15, 2025 Monday Morning Hurricane Season Update
NHC 80% high chance of developing tropical wave
September 2025 was the 7th-warmest September in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 67.9°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 66.0°F (+2.0°F).
September 2025 was the 15th-driest September in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 1.9in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.6in (-0.6in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Starting off a new week that should include the development of a named tropical storm by this weekend — Gabrielle. A large tropical wave is maintaining an arc of convection and winning the battle against dry and stable air. An upper-level trough is located just NE of the tropical disturbance, but should not inhibit development into a named storm in the coming days.
The next Invest is 92L — and NHC may start the ATCF spaghetti update process in the coming 24-hours.
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