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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Tropics MILEPOST 767

October 17, 2025 Friday Hurricane Season

NHC up to 30% chance of tropical wave development in Caribbean next week

What the month did

October 2025 was the 7th-warmest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 57.0°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 54.5°F (+2.4°F).

October 2025 was the 56th-wettest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (-0.2in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

Models show a high likelihood of tropical storm formation in about 7-days but the location and timing are uncertain:

ECMWF EPS (conventional full-physics systems) much slower formation thus reaching the western Caribbean.

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Milepost
767 · laid 2025-10-17T13:15:33.038000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/october-17-2025-friday-hurricane
Digest
5335bc927340e4a24a1d1975ca4fd12ab5ad3665b1438ff33ee8e4935333e7ad
Machine
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