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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Tropics MILEPOST 608

May 16, 2025 Friday Tropical Update

Transition to cooler pattern

What the month did

May 2025 was the 27th-warmest May in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 61.7°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 61.0°F (+0.7°F).

May 2025 was the 12th-wettest May in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 3.7in against a 1991–2020 normal of 3.1in (+0.6in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

Glad we made it to Friday! Just over 2 weeks until the start of Atlantic hurricane season. The Eastern Pacific is already underway but no signs of development in either basin for at least the next 7-10 days. Thereafter, we might see our first system in the Eastern Pacific along the coast of Mexico heading into the end of the month.

My second favorite parameter is the Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) along with the deep layer winds moving around the moisture. We can see the east to west movement of moisture and storms in the tropics, and the west to east movement of weather systems in the middle latitudes. Non-tropical low pressure systems work with subtropical ridges to grab moisture out of the tropics via atmospheric rivers providing much of our rainfall and storms across the Lower 48 on a daily and weekly basis.

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Milepost
608 · laid 2025-05-16T14:33:32.113000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/may-16-2025-friday-tropical-update
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