October 6, 2025 Monday Tropical Update
Impactful Nor'easter hybrid system this weekend
October 2025 was the 7th-warmest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 57.0°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 54.5°F (+2.4°F).
October 2025 was the 56th-wettest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (-0.2in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
NHC has a 70% chance of development in 7-days for tropical wave in the central Main Development Region —> Invest 95L
The environment in front of the storm is rather dry in the mid-levels. However, from the NASA Dust loop, there is a fairly impressive Saharan Air Dust layer behind the tropical wave that may be signaling to ECMWF model to tamp down expectations of a powerful Hurricane Jerry.
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