October 2, 2025 Thursday Weather
Chances increasing for a tropical wave developing in Atlantic MDR into next week
October 2025 was the 7th-warmest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 57.0°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 54.5°F (+2.4°F).
October 2025 was the 56th-wettest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (-0.2in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Large view centered on North America shows the development of Hurricane Priscilla with moisture heading into the U.S. Southwest. Note the Central American Gyre with a cyclonic spin-up on both sides of Mexico at Day 6-7 — which would be in the Bay of Campeche (Atlantic side) and Gulf of Tehuantepec …
Meanwhile, and this is why I’m showing “fantasy land” or “over the predictability horizon” at Day 15, the ECMWF 12z flagship solution DOES develop the tropical wave coming off Africa tonight into a hurricane — on a meandering course back into the Caribbean where conditions are optimal for Category 5.
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- 754 · laid 2025-10-03T01:02:02.475000Z
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