August 31, 2025 Sunday Morning Tropical Update
Next tropical wave coming off Africa today likely to slowly develop
August 2025 was the 28th-warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 73.4°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+0.3°F).
August 2025 was the 27th-driest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Tropical Wave coming off Africa (still) with 30% chance of development according to NHC.
Both conventional and A.I. ensembles from 00z and 06z show strong signal for tropical wave development in the MDR. Deterministic (control) member of ECMWF EPS waits several days for more favorable environment to west.
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