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Storyline · concluded · Season thread

Atlantic Season 2026

Every dispatch on this road this season, in order: the thread a daily newsletter leaves behind when you read it end to end.

41Dispatches
159Days · MAY 19–OCT 24
I-26Tropics
Where the dispatches were filed34 of 41 placed
Map of North America and the Atlantic with a shield at each dispatch's place Natural Earth · places from the headlines
Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st and we have many new forecasting tools FIGURE 1 MAY 19 · I-26 TROPICS Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st and we have many new forecasting tools Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st and may be front loaded FIGURE 1 MAY 21 · I-26 TROPICS Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st and may be front loaded GFS model with a known model bias spinning up bogus-canes LOOP MAY 27 · I-26 TROPICS GFS model with a known model bias spinning up bogus-canes HAFS-A next 5-days for Jangmi (06W) LOOP MAY 29 · I-26 TROPICS HAFS-A next 5-days for Jangmi (06W)
The route · every exit
  1. Exit 1 · MAY 19 Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st and we have many new forecasting tools Atlantic
  2. Exit 2 · MAY 21 Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st and may be front loaded Atlantic
  3. Exit 3 · MAY 27 GFS model with a known model bias spinning up bogus-canes
  4. Exit 4 · MAY 29 Gulf of Mexico next week could spin up a weak tropical system Gulf of Mexico
  5. Exit 5 · JUN 1 Atlantic Hurricane Season gets underway + Eastern Pacific tropical activity Eastern Pacific
  6. Exit 6 · JUN 2 Eastern Pacific basin finally sees first tropical depression Eastern Pacific
  7. Exit 7 · JUN 4 Watching Caribbean and Gulf for tropical storm development later next week Gulf of Mexico
  8. Exit 8 · JUN 5 · Subscribers Watching models for tropical storm development late next week in Gulf Gulf of Mexico
  9. Exit 9 · JUN 7 New tropical depression off coast of Mexico and remnants could cross into southern Gulf Mexico
  10. Exit 10 · JUN 8 Boris and Cristina in Eastern Pacific bringing heavy rain to the Mexico and Central America coasts Mexico
  11. Exit 11 · JUN 10 First lemon drop of season (10% chance) for low pressure in Bay of Campeche
  12. Exit 12 · JUN 11 Busy weather pattern with severe storms across Midwest and Great Lakes. Heavy rain over next week across South with tropical moisture plume Midwest
  13. Exit 13 · JUN 12 Prepare for enormous rainfall next week with tropical moisture plume delivering boatloads
  14. Exit 14 · JUN 15 Boatloads of rainfall with deep layer tropical moisture plume + Texas coast disturbance (30% chance) Texas
  15. Exit 15 · JUN 21 Atlantic tropics in a long slumber until July. A powerful Typhoon well east of Taiwan will turn north in the coming days away from land Taiwan
  16. Exit 16 · JUN 28 Atlantic not completely a ghost town but very quiet start to July likely Atlantic
  17. Exit 17 · JUN 30 Atlantic remains quiet into first week of July while a massive Super Typhoon develops in Western Pacific Western Pacific
  18. Exit 18 · JUL 10 · Subscribers Eastern Pacific basin lighting up over next 1-2 weeks. Some hints at Gulf activity forming from a trough. Otherwise the Atlantic in a dust cloud Gulf of Mexico
  19. Exit 19 · JUL 13 Eastern Pacific lights up with activity, and watching close-to-home Gulf trough into next week for storm action Gulf of Mexico
  20. Exit 20 · JUL 15 Thick smoke from Canadian wildfires will ride the ridge (heat dome) with temperatures in the 100s around Washington D.C. and one lonely 20% chance of development in Gulf Washington
  21. Exit 21 · JUL 17 · Subscribers Two areas of interest in the Atlantic including a tropical wave off Africa that looks interesting but window for development is short Africa
  22. Exit 22 · JUL 22 New one-stop-shop for climatology information about Earth's powerful tempests Global
  23. Exit 23 · AUG 3 Hints of Atlantic basin activity picking up in the Main Development Region next week as tropical waves finally escape the Saharan Dust over warm ocean waters Atlantic Main Development Region
  24. Exit 24 · AUG 4 Atlantic remains closed for business until next week when a break in the Saharan Air Layer infused dust may allow tropical waves to catch fire Atlantic
  25. Exit 25 · AUG 5 · Subscribers Signs of life in the Atlantic basin later next week as robust African tropical waves encounter a more favorable environment in the MDR Atlantic Main Development Region
  26. Exit 26 · AUG 6 Ensembles perking up into next week across the Atlantic with two candidate tropical waves going up against Saharan Air Layer gauntlet Atlantic
  27. Exit 27 · AUG 7 Robust tropical waves coming off Africa will follow a major Saharan dust layer event Africa
  28. Exit 28 · AUG 9 · Subscribers Atlantic hurricane season has come alive with multiple areas being watched. A hurricane may threaten Hawaii later in the week Hawaii
  29. Exit 29 · AUG 18 Atlantic may come alive next week with a strong African tropical wave. A huge Typhoon is forming in the Western Pacific out by Guam Western Pacific
  30. Exit 30 · AUG 19 · Subscribers A powerful Super Typhoon, another Central Pacific Hurricane on the way. Model agreement on Atlantic tropical wave on Sunday developing into a hurricane Western Pacific
  31. Exit 31 · AUG 20 Still waiting until next week for a tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic but some non-tropical low pressure off Portugal may get the next name Iberia
  32. Exit 32 · AUG 21 · Subscribers Eyes on a tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic early next week. A non-tropical low pressure off Portugal may get the next name Iberia
  33. Exit 33 · AUG 21 Pacific full tilt with plethora of active systems and more to come. Atlantic has 3 areas watched including Eastern MDR tropical wave Atlantic Main Development Region
  34. Exit 34 · AUG 23 Pacific continues to churn out tropical systems. The Atlantic has several areas to watch including a tropical wave with moderate chance of development in MDR this week Atlantic Main Development Region
  35. Exit 35 · AUG 23 Pacific continues to churn out tropical systems. The Atlantic has several areas to watch including a tropical wave with moderate chance of development in MDR this week Atlantic Main Development Region
  36. Exit 36 · AUG 24 · Subscribers Strong tropical wave emerged off African coast and looks healthy. However, tough sledding ahead into marginally favorable Atlantic tropical basin Atlantic Main Development Region
  37. Exit 37 · AUG 25 Time running out for Invest 96L to become a tropical depression before conditions degrade. Then another window may open in 7-10 days near Bahamas Bahamas
  38. Exit 38 · AUG 26 · Subscribers Invest 96L looks healthy this evening but not quite a tropical depression in the central Atlantic. Eastern Pacific lighting up with a flurry of activity Atlantic Main Development Region
  39. Exit 39 · SEP 8 Atlantic tropics ghost town through next week but perhaps more favorable in 10-12 days in far eastern MDR. Norbert is next in the Eastern Pacific Atlantic Main Development Region
  40. Exit 40 · SEP 9 No signs of life in the Atlantic while the Pacific goes gangbusters Atlantic
  41. Exit 41 · OCT 24 Quiet weather continues into next week. Curtains for the Atlantic Tropics? Atlantic
END Final dispatch OCT 24.

Why I-26?

Tropical stories ride Interstate 26, after the 26 °C sea-surface temperature often used as a rough threshold for tropical development.

26 °C

The sea-surface temperature often used as a rough threshold for tropical development; the shield number of this road.

Invest

An area the Hurricane Center is investigating, numbered 90–99 with a basin letter, before it has a name.

ACE

Accumulated Cyclone Energy: a season's wind, squared and summed every six hours. Climatology sets the scale.