Extreme Fire Danger —> air quality alerts for ongoing fires and smoke across Washington and Oregon with more variable upper-level and near surface winds allow the plumes to drift westward toward the coast.

Huge plumes of Saharan desert dust still coming off the African continent to squelch and suppress tropical convection. The Atlantic basin remains dead. This part of the puzzle is less related to El Niño and is a typical SAL + dust inhibitor that usually decreases by mid-August.

But as part of El Niño, the tropical waves head westward in the Main Development Region (MDR), and encounter strong wind shear and interact with upper-level troughs = complete buzzkill for storm formation — at least until they can reach the Eastern Pacific or even the Central Pacific (like Dolphin, which was probably an African Easterly Wave, too) .

Seeing some signs of a brief window of more favorable conditions in the MDR into next week, but still very weak signals.

CONUS Water Vapor

Eastern Pacific: No activity for the next several days —> typical for the EPAC as the basin typically bursts with activity, but watching 2 waves into next week for development.

Typhoon Dolphin (12W) at major hurricane strength with a tight inner-core surrounded by massive breadth of outer bands.

Beautiful Typhoon Dolphin this morning — strong inner-core surrounded by a massive outer band / galaxy structure —> 105 knots (Category 3)

North America Precipitable Water Next 6-days

1. A tropical disturbance approaches the eastern coast of Florida later in the week with plenty of tropical moisture. Maybe something to monitor aside from uptick in rainfall.

2. Strong trough swirls over southern Canada anchored to Hudson Bay —> cooler and unsettled across the Great Lakes and Northeast

Next 3-days of Precipitation for CONUS from NDFD

Next 7-days Blend of Models Precipitation

ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

Mid-Level 500 mb Height Anomaly next 10-days

Similar story as yesterday: Mid-August appears unsettled across the Great Lakes and Northeast with a persistent trough anchored over the Hudson Bay … and that means temperatures are knocked down from what could be the dog days of August with heat domes. Good news — as we are quickly running out of summer.

Current Temperatures — 7:30 PM ET

Current Temperature Anomaly — 7:30 PM ET

Lower 48 average temperatures were -0.1°F below normal

High Temperatures next 9-days —> August 13th (Thursday)

Major heat remains across the Western U.S. and Texas, but still not seeing any major heat waves for the Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, or the Northeast through August 13th. 90s are seasonable for mid-August, so I don’t consider that record “heat dome” level

Low Temperatures Wednesday Morning

More 40s popping up in the northern Rockies with 60s into the Great Lakes and Northeast — warmer than Tuesday morning.

High Temperatures on Wednesday

Only 109 million population at least 90°F with little coverage east of the Mississippi, and oddly enough, Maine hotter than many areas on Wednesday

Next 7-days | Week 1 Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly

Week 2 Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly

Atlantic Tropics — not entirely left for dead: <10% chance through 2-weeks of ensemble members producing a tropical system

AIFS Machine Learning Next 15-days: still shows action out of the MDR with higher / moderate signal of something relatively weak developing past mid-August

Monday Afternoon Situation in the Tropical Atlantic — high pressure in control and a strong subtropical (death) ridge.

Over 597 dm at 500 mb centered at 25°N and 45°W is NOT a signal favorable for Atlantic MDR tropical storm formation.

Tropical Waves — Lined up 6 deep from the Eastern Pacific to off coast of Africa

2 of the easterly waves in the parade are now marked with 20% chance of development in next 7-days.

A healthy tropical wave is moving westward across the MDR but it’s not expected to survive.

SST and Anomaly

Sub-26°C = green still cutting into the MDR through the central Atlantic but that area is being reduced day by day. That’s near the 30-year climatology so the “bare minimum”. Atlantic is not quite yet open for business until you get in to the Gulf and Caribbean, and there the wind shear is wiping everything out —> shredder/graveyward.

Flagship AIFS Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days —> tropical waves churn westward, and into second week of August, quite a few tropical waves in the MDR quite evidence, but not quite “catching fire” to form a tropical storm.

Eastern Pacific Typhoon Basin

2 areas in the deep tropics associated with long-life tropical waves from the Atlantic … only 20% in next 7-days, but I think the eastern wave could become a hurricane and track east of Hawaii — at least according to recent AIFS cycles.

Western Pacific Typhoon Basin

Typhoon Dolphin is still going — and has kept a small inner-core structure within a galaxy spiral of outer bands. Intensity around 105 knots (Category 3)

Due west track — but JTWC does not indicate landfall — and that is probably a stale forecast through 5-days, as the model suites show a China landfall by Sunday 00z.

SSTs —> massive expanse of 30°C to over 31°C water in the path of Dolphin

Ensemble Tracks into China from Google Deep Mind no longer shows the northward bend prior to landfall. Instead, it’s slightly slower movement but definitely into China by Sunday.

EPS 12z (full-physics) same track with slowing — but landfall into China.

ECMWF 18z | Updated has landfall at 00z Sunday with large wind field and near major hurricane intensity maximum winds + pressure

Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z shows evolution of Dolphin into China. Quite the change from 24-hours ago when there was still much uncertainty about landfall.