Headlines for Friday

• Beautiful weather across the central U.S. including the Midwest, Great Lakes with cold fronts lined up to keep the air pristine, cool and dry!

• Heat and humidity across the South including Atlanta, the Carolinas, and up the Eastern Seaboard

• Slight chance of severe weather across the I-95 corridor later this evening as storms form and cross the mountains. However, not expecting a widespread outbreak but scattered storms.

• Weak tropical disturbance in Bay of Campeche (10% NHC chance of development) will be watched for any consistent whirl/spin + low-level winds for naming as a tropical depression. It could happen quickly, or not at all!

Headline Maps for Friday

Drought Monitor released yesterday

I wanted to match up the last 7-days of precipitation to the Drought Monitor map and show you that areas that need the rain are NOT getting it … mainly across the West and Florida + Georgia and the Carolinas. Also, the Lower Mississippi River Valley (Arkansas and Louisiana) could use a drink.

Meanwhile — the Midwest and Great Lakes received boatloads with strong storms and downpours. Compared to normal last 7-days — 3x to 5x!

Convective Outlook — Severe Thunderstorms on Friday (SPC Day 1)

Slight Risk for 65 million Americans

HRRR simulated Radar through Saturday 3 AM ET

Boatloads of Rainfall on the Way

Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 9-days

That’s just a MASSIVE amount of rainfall coming to much of the East Central Lower 48 with widespread area of 2” to 5”+ in 9-days … talk about a wet pattern!

My favorite parameter — next 48-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water

Moisture surge continues out of the Gulf into Texas with the tropical disturbance — you don’t need a named storm for major impacts — especially with the rainfall coming over the next week or two.

Sharp cold front erases much of the heat and humidity across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to more seasonably mild temperatures

HRRR Radar Simulation Next 48-Hours —> Sunday 8 AM ET

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours —> Monday morning

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 06z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

ECMWF 06z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

Sharp Canadian trough briefly erases the tropical moisture across the Central and Eastern U.S. into later next week

Tropical > 2” —> boatloads of heavy precipitable water along the Gulf coast

ECMWF 06z | Precipitation + MSLP | Next 6-days

Temperature Analysis | RTMA | 10:15 AM ET

Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 10:15 AM ET

Lower 48 was +2.9°F above normal

High Temperatures Next 8-Days —> Saturday June 20th

High Temperatures on Friday

Mid-90s in NYC and Washington D.C.

100s in North Carolina + Virginia + South Carolina

Low Temperatures on Saturday

High Temperatures on Saturday

Still in the upper-90s to low-100s in coastal South Carolina and around Jacksonville, Florida

High Temperatures on Sunday — Nice cool front!

Temperatures 10-15°F below normal across the central U.S.

But heat builds across the coastal Pacific northwest including Seattle and Portland

Weather Pattern

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

Very strong mid-level trough maintains its grip on the Midwest and Great Lakes for the next 10-days. The flow out of the Northwest is straight from the Arctic = cool and dry … very intense trough for mid-June.

A Pacific origin trough swoops into the replace the Canadian vortex into next weekend.

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

Much cooler than normal air blankets central Canada and dumps into the Lower 48

Week 1 —> June 12 to June 18

Week 2 —> June 19 to June 25

European Heat Dome Builds — into next week!

Paris to 100°F

Berlin into the upper-90s

Always hot in Madrid

Snapshot mid-day next Thursday — France bearing brunt of heat dome

Quick Tropical Update in the Atlantic

Tropical disturbance — 10% chance of development (low!)

Otherwise, the Atlantic is pleasant — quiet.

And, the EPS ensembles through Day 15 show a “ghost town” with no development likely

Maybe some weak low pressure centers around 1006 mb near coast but unlikely to produce enough surface wind to justify a TD or TS

Maximum 10% chance of a weak tropical wave forming a coherent low pressure in the Bay of Campeche (Southern Gulf of Mexico) today

Eastern Pacific + Central American Gyre | Cyclonic Vorticity Next 4-days

Western Pacific Typhoon — odds improving in 5-7 days for next major system

Eastern Pacific has gone quiet — even with a couple tropical waves moving westward within the ITCZ/monsoon trough — they’ll need to be watched in the Central Pacific and around the Dateline with the ongoing El Nino.