Severe thunderstorms about to reach the Ohio River in a convective complex. Embedded tornadoes and risk for damaging winds along with heavy rain, of course.

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours —> Wednesday Afternoon

More rainfall for the lower Great Lakes and Northeast w/widespread 1-inch+

Much more in Oklahoma with a convective storm complex expected to move southward tomorrow.

My favorite parameter — next 48-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water

Into later Monday, the frontal boundary digs southward and pushes the tropical moisture into Southeast. On the backside of the trough, the MCS forms in southern Kansas and crashes southward through Oklahoma.

Weather Into Monday Morning

HRRR Forecast Radar into Monday Noon ET

Rain and embedded storms head into the Northeast with the storm system.

We’ll need to wait until later in the day for new storms to fire up for the Mid-Atlantic.

HRRR Rainfall over the next 48-hours painted by the storms

Oklahoma and Arkansas with heaviest downpours with this 18z HRRR cycle

HRRR Next 48-hours simulated Radar through Tuesday 2 PM ET

Weather on Monday — Frontal Boundary focus for continued storms and heavy rain as tropical moisture encounters digging trough

ECMWF 18z | Precipitation + MSLP | Next 6-days

• Mainly scattered convective complex — rather than organized storms systems

• In Summer we watch for frontal boundaries that are more humidity gradients rather than cold/warm air separation.

• Week ahead looks unsettled

Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 9-days

Help support this newsletter (nearing post 1,000!) —> June 2026 Coupon

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

Generally 1.8” (yellow) PWAT with embedded > 2” convective cells = heavy downpours across Central U.S. into the Southeast.

Temperature Analysis | RTMA | 7:30 PM ET

Very hot in west Texas > 105°F … only 30 million population at least 90°F at 7:30 PM

Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 7:30 PM ET

Lower 48 was -1.5°F below normal with clouds and rainfall cooling down the Dakotas, Midwest into the Great Lakes

High Temperatures Next 8-Days —> Tuesday June 30th

Trend to hotter temperatures across the board into final days of June with 100s building across all of Texas with the much dryer conditions. Southeast including Atlanta and Carolinas push well into the 90s.

With less tropical moisture plume activity from the Gulf of Mexico, we’ll see much warmer temperatures and lower rain chances —> warming trend into 4th of July.

210 million+ at least 90°F by June 30th with Lower 48 average high of 86.7°F

Low Temperatures on Monday

40s and 50s from northern Rockies into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast.

No sign of muggy, heat wave conditions — windows open!

High Temperatures on Monday

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

Into Summer —> Height Anomalies don’t tell entire story … actual height helps!

594 dm —> 597 dm (or higher) contours pop up across the U.S. border in AZ/NM and then in the Southeast … trending warmer —> maybe a more typical “heat dome” centered over the Southeast into early July.

European Heat Dome Next 10-days centered Western Europe — moves eastward into Germany and Poland … and potential for another event in 10-days west of the U.K. which could push over Isles.

104°F in Berlin maximum next weekend!

HOT with 99°F in Paris maximum Wed/Thursday

96°F in London on Tuesday and 98°F to 99°F on Wed/Thurs

Temperature Anomaly next 12-days

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

Week 1 —> June 21 to June 27

Cool 7-days ahead for Midwest and Great Lakes — no complaints

Week 2 —> June 28 to July 4

Pattern flip with trough in the NW and Western U.S. —> cooler than normal with much warmer than normal into 4th of July east of the Rockies

Atlantic Basin — Very Quiet through end of June 2026

Dust Forecast | NASA GEOS-5 Model Next 10-days

Dust plumes are not particularly intense, but they are noticeable. However, the Saharan Air Layers are more important which blast off the African continent —> warm, stable air at low-levels = suppression of convective (storms) and any tropical waves struggle to even generate a shower.

Tropical Waves … multiple across the 2 basins but nothing active

SST Temperature Analysis — still sub-26°C over half of the MDR east of 50°W

And, that area is much cooler than the last 30-years climatology. Northwest Atlantic is also very chilly

Satellite Imagery — not much active convection across the entire Atlantic tropics

Ensemble Storm Tracks Next 15-days —> Complete Ghost Town in Atlantic

Global SST Anomaly show the ongoing / intensifying El Niño

Couple Tropical Waves in Eastern Pacific with Low Chance (20%) in coming week

Western Pacific Typhoon Season

Typhoon MEKKHALA has nicely cleared out a large eye

The NW quadrant of the eyewall is not quite complete, but we’re likely looking at a Category 4 Typhoon (115-knots) — morning out there.

HAFS-A 18z suggests minimum pressure into the 935 mb range —> Super Typhoon at Category 4 — 130-knots.

Tracks from Full Physics EPS Ensembles + Deep Mind both show a WNW track for next 2-days before recurving to the NORTH and then NNE along/near coast of Japan by weekend.

JTWC forecast track through 5-days — max 120-knots winds (Cat 4)

Full Physics ECMWF Ensembles | Next 15-days