The long-awaited emergence of the strong tropical wave (soon to be Invest 96L) into the Atlantic Ocean, which is plenty warm for storm or hurricane development. However, as we have observed over the past several weeks, tropical waves look healthy and ambitious/eager to “catch fire” but then “blow a tire” or poof out after encounter very dry (Saharan) air layers, dust, and vertical wind shear.

So far so good for this rather large circulation. In any other non-El Niño summer, we’d probably be seeing a hurricane in the next few days. But, this does not look likely as the tropical wave will probably struggle until it escapes the Main Development Region in 5-6 days.