August 23, 2026 Sunday Morning Tropics
Pacific continues to churn out tropical systems. The Atlantic has several areas to watch including a tropical wave with moderate chance of development in MDR this week.
August 2026 was the warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 75.6°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+2.5°F).
August 2026 was the 22nd-driest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (-0.4in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Headlines Sunday Morning Across the Tropics
Atlantic basin comes back to life in next few days with models showing a tropical storm in the Main Development Region in 4-5 days. However, the environment is less than ideal, and not expecting much in the way of intensification beyond a tropical depression or storm for maybe 7-10 days when the system can escape into the Western Atlantic north of the Caribbean.
A non-tropical area of low pressure off the coast of Portugal is embedded with a mid-latitude trough and did not have time nor warm enough water to become fully tropical. No name.
Another small area of convection in the central subtropical Atlantic also has low potential (30%) but is being watched by NHC.
Typhoon Saudel (17W) in the Western Pacific is at 110-knots with a nice eye and convective structure. It will turn abruptly west and then southwest into China this coming week.
Tropical Storm Lala still going out in the open Central Pacific, and may take another 5-days to spin down below TS/TD strength. Tropical Storm Moke remains poorly organized and will not intensify further.
New formed Tropical Storm Iselle (09E) will become a hurricane but stay well away from land during it’s 5-day run.
Atlantci IR Satellite Loop into early Afternoon
The tropical wave over Africa is the one we are watching — probably for the next 10-days as it treks across the Atlantic.
You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud —> LINK
Atlantic Tropical Outlook
Invest 95L in the central Atlantic will continue northward, and may become Dolly briefly.
Atlantic Basin Tropical Spaghetti Next 15-days
Tracks from 51-member ensemble of AIFS-06z …
The tropical wave is tracked across the MDR at TD or low-TS intensity, but then has a better chance to intensify into a hurricane in 10-days assuming it heads quite far west. There are many members with major hurricane but off the U.S. East Coast.
Additional development in the Gulf needs to be watched in 2-weeks as many members have popped with TS/Hurricanes. Low chance, long range, so only something to watch.
ECMWF Ensemble 00z full-physics tracks next 15-days
The main difference between AIFS and the full-physics EPS: recurve much sooner along 60°W.
To me, the machine learning trained system (AIFS) has a weaker system and that is allowed to drift further westward. But on the other hand, it may be removing a too-soon-to-recurve bias in the full physics system.
We need another vote!
Google Deep Mind 06z Ensemble Tracks
Quite a collection of very intense members off the East Coast into Day 10.
Until the AIFS and Google Deep Mind abandon this scenario, we must remain vigilant with the tropical wave.
Day 5 — Next Thursday Afternoon convective structure of the tropical wave — simulated WV and IR
The tropical wave is robust with a strong circulation and plenty of moisture, but there is dry air (Saharan Air Layer) to the north, and that’s wrecked all previous waves regardless of model excitement. However, I think this one will survive — perhaps at a low-ebb for the next week.
Extending HRES 00z (ECMWF) into Day 12 — Major Hurricane recurved well off the East Coast and away from Bermuda.
And, for reference (not fun) here’s the GFS 06z 9-day forecast minimum MSLP swath with a major hurricane heading out to sea.
Portugal Low Pressure System
Non-tropical area of low pressure off Portugal did not intensify as a tropical cyclone. The midlatitude trough in which it is embedded has keep the system mostly cold-core through the mid-levels.
ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | Atlantic Tropics Next 6-days
Tropical wave looks quite healthy — but the environment is hostile with dry air in the MDR. However, this looks like a tropical storm.
Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 06z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days
AIFS Single 06z is due west with the aforementioned tropical wave, with limited development.
Sea Surface Temperatures in Atlantic are very warm now > 28°C (red)
Very warm off Africa with 28.5°C to 30°C. The rest of the basin is also very warm including 30°C in the Gulf. The Caribbean is a bit cooler than normal but still plenty sufficient for any intensity hurricane. However, highly unlikely we’ll see one anytime soon in the “shear shredding” Caribbean.
ECMWF CAMS 00z — Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth and dry air combined with subsidence at low levels.
The SAL is not giving up, and may “somewhat” suppress the tropical wave we’ll be watching all week.
Tropical Waves — Busy tropics from Pacific into the Atlantic typical into late August.
Equatorial Africa — Tropical Wave coming off continent tomorrow
You can see the circulation / spin in a large scale sense already
Central and Eastern Pacific Tropics
Tropical Storm Iselle has formed
Iselle is forecast to become a hurricane — but remain away from land.
Tropical Storm Moke has not intensified well south of Hawaii with 45 mph winds.
More storms in the pipeline! Could be 1-2 more in 10-days
Pacific Hurricane And Typhoon Factory.
Western Pacific Tropics
Typhoon Saudel (17W) at 110 knots (almost Category 4)
Track will turn to the west and southwest in 3-4 days but weaken as it heads into China — impact as a strong TS or weak Cat 1 Typhoon, but a very large system at this juncture.
HAFS-A 06z mesoscale model (parent domain) shows large Typhoon Saudel bending westward in 4-5 days
Western Pacific —> Central Pacific remains VERY busy in coming 10-days
Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!
Forecast Eagle maps explorer under construction.
Also, Forecast Canada with some beautiful Arctic views.
Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud, and soon Radar Imager from Forecast dBZ.
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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
- Milepost
- 1015 · laid 2026-08-23T15:29:02.601000Z
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- https://weather.substack.com/p/august-23-2026-sunday-morning-tropics
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- 3850f1cf3532e0999c694f5889bd7a8985b810b223a2babe9d49a0eaf22ec947
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