Invest 95L — well east of the mainland U.S. — 50% chance of development

Headlines Sunday Evening across the tropics

• Major tropical wave now coming off Africa — and all systems go for a tropical depression into mid-week over the very warm waters of the Main Development Region.

• A growing area of convection in the central subtropical Atlantic now has medium potential (50%) and is being watched by NHC — could steal the name Dolly.

• Typhoon Saudel (17W) in the Western Pacific remains at 110-knots with a nice eye and convective structure. It will turn abruptly west and then southwest into China late in the week.

• In the Eastern Pacific, tropical Storm Iselle (09E) will become a hurricane but stay well away from land during it’s 5-day run.

Atlantic IR Satellite Loop

Huge tropical wave now coming off the coast of Africa, and we’ll be watching for the next 10-days.

You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud —> LINK

Atlantic Tropical Outlook

Invest 95L in the central Atlantic will continue northward, and may become Dolly briefly.

Atlantic Basin Tropical Spaghetti Next 15-days

Tracks from 51-member ensemble of AIFS-18z …

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

Same story as 00z, the main difference between AIFS and the full-physics EPS: recurve much sooner along 60°W

The machine learning trained system (AIFS) has a weaker system, and that is allowed to drift further westward. But on the other hand, it may be removing a too-soon-to-recurve bias in the full physics system.

Google Deep Mind 18z Ensemble Tracks

Still quite a collection of very intense members off the Southeast U.S. coast into Day 10. Until the AIFS-ENS and Google Deep Mind abandon this scenario, we must remain vigilant with this tropical wave, and any following into mid-September

Cyclonic Vorticity Next 6-days —> we’ve got a spinner!

ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | Atlantic Tropics Next 6-days

All systems go for a weak to moderate tropical storm!

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days

This cycle of AIFS-Single has a stronger tropical storm through the MDR from the tropical wave (eventually 96L) but it sputters on a westerly course to the NE Caribbean. Note, the full-physics systems are recurving right away to the north out of the central MDR.

Equatorial Africa — Tropical Wave coming off continent into Monday with more lined up into next weekend

Eastern Pacific Tropics

Tropical Storm Iselle generating very intense convection tonight!

Western Pacific Tropics | Typhoon Saudel

Typhoon Saudel (17W) still at 110 knots (almost Category 4) and the track philosophy hasn’t changed still WNW and then a 45° left turn into China as a much weaker system.

Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site now with the beautiful Interstate Highway theme and full of interesting content!

Forecast Eagle maps explorer under construction.

Also, Forecast Canada with some beautiful Arctic views.

Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud, and soon Radar Imager from Forecast dBZ.

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