June 10, 2026 Wednesday Tropical Update
First lemon drop of season (10% chance) for low pressure in Bay of Campeche
June 2026 was the 18th-warmest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 70.6°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 69.5°F (+1.2°F).
June 2026 was the 32nd-wettest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 3.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 3.1in (+0.2in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Colorado State University (Dr. Klotzbach) updated their 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (PDF —> Link). From their discussion:
The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by warm ENSO neutral conditions, but all signs point towards a robust El Niño in the next couple of months. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are near average, while they are below average in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. We currently anticipate that the moderate to strong El Niño will dominate the tropical circulation during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, likely driving well above-normal levels of vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.
Negatives: intensifying El Niño, cool SSTs, and above normal wind shear.
And, that being said, Colorado State’s updated forecast for 2026 is 11 Named Storms, 5 Hurricanes, and 2 Major Hurricanes — which should look familiar as that was our original forecast from April 7th — so no need to adjust anything! Once I get the updated MEIv2 (ENSO index) number for June, then I can re-run my statistical scheme.
But, based upon the “chilly” Atlantic basin, I would probably take the under.
My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
Current SST Anomaly — UKMO OSTIA (0.05° grid, 1996-2025 climatology)
Broad tropical wave across NW Caribbean with some convection this evening
Eastern Pacific + Central American Gyre | Cyclonic Vorticity Next 4-days
Tropical Depression Cristina nearing the El Salvador coast. However, its circulation should be absorbed within a larger tropical wave into the Bay of Campeche into Friday and Saturday. NHC has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone development. Anything that does come out of this “gyre” would be relatively weak but contribute to heavy rain within the deep layer moisture plume out of the Caribbean.
Tropical Weather Headlines for Tuesday
Atlantic: Next 5-days, low chance (10% NHC) in the southern Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche) with Cristina’s remnants crossing Central America within deep layer moisture plume (Central American Gyre Circulation) and a larger tropical wave … any system would be quite weak.
Eastern Pacific: Tropical Depression Cristina will drift into El Salvador. Its circulation or remnants will cross into the southern Bay of Campeche by weekend. Remaining threat is rain.
Western Pacific: watching near the Int’l Dateline for a large scale development into the weekend with some ensemble support (50%) that could be our next Typhoon.
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ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Cyclone Tracks (12z)
Into the weekend, only watching the southern Gulf of Mexico for low chance (<20%) of TD/TS activity out of a large circulation/ gyre centered over Mexico + Central America with input from remnants of Tropical Depression Cristina (03E).
Flagship model: ECMWF HRES 12z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days
The large scale flow with the Central American Gyre picks up the remnants of Cristina into the southern Gulf of Mexico with a northerly turn along the Texas coastline. The very strong Caribbean —> Gulf of Mexico moisture plume resumes around the westward extension of the Bermuda High. We’ll be watching this [typical] pattern for the next 2-weeks, at least. As a trough digs into the central Lower 48, the moisture plume will converge along the Gulf coast states … with heavy precipitation likely.
ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter
Major trough out of Canada will sweep through the Lower 48 and collide with the Caribbean/Gulf moisture plume
Rainfall next 8-days from Blend of Models —> boatloads!
Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days
Very strong mid-level trough swings into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late in week and then intensifies significantly into early next week —> cooler pattern across Central Lower 48 into mid-June.
ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days
Week 1 —> June 10 to June 16
Week 2 —> June 17 to June 23
Below normal — blue in Texas and the Great Lakes
Atlantic Basin Satellite Channels | IR Channel 13 + Water Vapor
Nothing organized across the Atlantic — just scattered showers.
NASA Dust Forecast Next 10-days
Saharan Air Layers might be significant — as usual — but they contain very little dust compared to previous years. Only minor plumes heading westward across the Main Development Region. Looking at the origin over North Africa —>
North Atlantic Tropics | Next 7-days | 10% chance
Weak area of low pressure will form in the southern Bay of Campeche —> but only 10% chance (so far) of becoming a TD/TS.
3 Tropical Waves — none developing in the Atlantic, but as they eventually reach the Eastern Pacific, could trigger formation, as we saw with Boris and Cristina
My favorite parameter —> Precipitable Water (PWAT) next 6-days
Tropical storms and hurricanes are bundles of high moisture air > 2” in the column (or more) so we look for areas of concentrated high PWAT air in the tropics —> and we also can view frontal boundaries or dry air input from the middle-latitudes into the subtropics or tropics + Saharan Air Layers (dry)
Integrated Vapor Transport —> IVT next 10-days from ECMWF AIFS
Eastern Pacific is left with TD Cristina (03E) along Mexico/Central America within the gyre.
The deep layer moisture plume surges through the Caribbean into the Gulf and then northward through eastern U.S. — and we will still be watching for any tropical cyclone development mainly in the southern Gulf in the coming days.
Eastern Pacific Tropics | 2026 Season
Disorganized Tropical Depression Cristina right along the coast of El Salvador.
2026 Names —> Amanda, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida
Tropical Depression Cristina (03E) nearing landfall with 30 mph winds, main threat is heavy rain from slow moving, disorganized systems
Western Pacific Basin — Typhoon Season — Some signs of life in 7-days
Now > 50% chance of a Typhoon developing eventually out of a broad circulation near the Dateline … origin is a Mixed Rossby Gravity Wave
Global Ocean Temperatures —> Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
Tropical storms need at least 26°C SST to form and intensify … and hurricanes most often become major with 28°C SST (at least).
There are still rather cool (relative) areas in the Western Pacific and North Atlantic compared to the growing warmth along the Equator and off the western coast of Mexico with the oncoming El Niño. This recent 30-year climatology highlights much better than an older 1991-2020 baseline from UKMO OSTIA 0.05°C.
Atlantic Ocean Temperatures | SST Analysis (June 9)
The Atlantic remains much cooler than normal across the Main Development Region [MDR] from the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean) to the Canary Islands and coast of Africa. The North Atlantic off the East Coast and into the mid-latitudes is also quite cool.
Thank you for reaching the end of this post! Hopefully you enjoyed the tour of the global tropics and what’s coming in the weeks/months ahead in the tropics here on Weather Trader on Substack.
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For 2026 Hurricane Season: Every 6 or 12 hours, we get an update including these model output
ECMWF EPS full-physics ensembles … 50 perturbed members + control/HRES
ECMWF AIFS-Ensemble (data driven) … another 50 members + control
ECMWF AIFS-Single … a special deterministic system that has exceptional skill
NOAA GEFSv12 Ensembles … 30 perturbed members + control
NOAA GFSv16 … 13-km high resolution global deterministic
UK Met Office MOGREPS lagged ensembles … global 14-km 72-members per day
Environment Canada ensembles + Germany ICON + Australia BOM Unified Model
New Google WeatherNext 1000-member ensemble system (!) more on that in future post
My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropics along 5°N to 10°N is where moist air can ascend and form thunderstorms or like a convective pot boiling over = convection. In the coming weeks, especially into late June, we’ll look for areas of disturbed weather — which means persistent convection — and potential formation of low pressure swirls along the ITCZ with tropical waves, in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (America) with decaying frontal boundaries, and other pathways like tropical transition or subtropical cut-off lows. Lots of options/ways to form a tropical storm in the Atlantic in any given season.
The Bermuda High —> Azores High in the subtropics usually keeps things quiet in the latitude around 30°N and suppresses the ITCZ to the south in late May into June. On the periphery of the Bermuda High, moisture plumes out of the Caribbean into the Gulf and then Texas + Southeast.
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- https://weather.substack.com/p/june-10-2026-wednesday-tropical-update
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