June 7, 2026 Sunday Tropical Update
New tropical depression off coast of Mexico and remnants could cross into southern Gulf
June 2026 was the 18th-warmest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 70.6°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 69.5°F (+1.2°F).
June 2026 was the 32nd-wettest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 3.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 3.1in (+0.2in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Tropical Weather Headlines for Sunday
Atlantic: Medium-range (5-7 days) high uncertainty in southern Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche) with system crossing Central America within deep layer moisture plume (Central American Gyre Circulation) … much lower probability of a tropical storm compared to Friday (50% —> 20%) from ECMWF Ensembles
Eastern Pacific Amanda is a remnant low. Tropical Depression (02E) forecast to become Tropical Storm Boris briefly + another system (90%) also along the coast of Central America. Proximity to land will limit intensification and organization with heavy rain as the primary threat.
Western Pacific: no activity expected in next 7 days, surprisingly quiet out there.
ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Cyclone Tracks (12z)
Into next weekend, we’re watching the southern Gulf of Mexico for low chance (~20%) of TS/Hurricane activity out of a large circulation/ gyre centered over Mexico + Central America with input from remnants of 1 Eastern Pacific tropical system (Invest 92E).
One scenario: ECMWF HRES 12z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days
Watch the large scale flow with the Central American Gyre pick up the remnants of an Eastern Pacific tropical system into the southern Gulf … and then the very strong Caribbean —> Gulf of Mexico moisture plume resumes around the westward extension of the Bermuda High. We’ll be watching this pattern for the next 2-weeks, at least, quite persisently strong.
ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter
Moisture continues to surge due northward through the central Lower 48 into southern Canada. Heavy rain is primary threat from this very moist air mass with daytime heating.
ECMWF 18z | Precipitation Type + MSLP | Next 6-days
Current Temperatures | RTMA | 8:45 PM ET
Current Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 8:45 PM ET
Lower 48 was -0.2°F below normal
High Temperatures Next 8-Days —> Tuesday June 16th.
Cooler weather in the Northern Rockies and Midwest into next weekend as summertime heat builds eastward again — widespread 90s or even 100°F in the mid-Atlantic by Thurs/Friday.
Low Temperatures Monday Morning
High Temperatures on Monday
Only 71 million at least 90°F … and 252 million at least 80°F.
Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days
Strong mid-level trough swings into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late in week and then intensifies — cooler pattern for sure across Central Lower 48 into mid-June.
ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days
Week 1 —> June 7 to June 13
Week 2 —> June 14 to June 20
HRRR Radar Simulation Next 48-Hours —> Tuesday 2 PM ET
Weather Pattern into Monday Morning
Weather Pattern on Monday
NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours —> Wednesday Evening
Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 10-days
Atlantic Basin Satellite Channels | IR Channel 13 + Water Vapor
Entire basin is very quiet with any tropical waves showing limited convection.
Very little convection in the Gulf of Mexico — or elsewhere in the Atlantic basin.
North Atlantic Tropics | Quiet Next 7-days
5 Tropical Waves — none developing in the Atlantic, but as they eventually reach the Eastern Pacific, could trigger formation, as we see with 2 systems in the EPAC
My favorite parameter —> Precipitable Water (PWAT) next 6-days
Tropical storms and hurricanes are bundles of high moisture air > 2” in the column (or more) so we look for areas of concentrated high PWAT air in the tropics —> and we also can view frontal boundaries or dry air input from the middle-latitudes into the subtropics or tropics + Saharan Air Layers (dry)
Integrated Vapor Transport —> IVT next 12-days from ECMWF AIFS
Eastern Pacific is busy with TD 02E and Invest 92E along Mexico/Central America within the gyre. However, their proximity to land will limit development.
The deep layer moisture plume surges through the Caribbean into the Gulf and then northward through eastern U.S. — and we will still be watching for any tropical cyclone development in the southern Gulf in the 6-8 days time frame.
Eastern Pacific Tropics | 2026 Season
Amanda has become a remnant low as convection as poofed.
Tropical Depression 02E (next name is Boris)
May make landfall (loosely defined center) by mid-day on Monday
2026 Names —> Amanda, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida
Main threat is heavy rain —> Total Precipitation Next 6-days
Western Pacific Basin — Typhoon Season — Quiet next 7-days
Global Ocean Temperatures —> Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
Tropical storms need at least 26°C SST to form and intensify … and hurricanes most often become major with 28°C SST (at least).
There are still rather cool (relative) areas in the Western Pacific and North Atlantic compared to the growing warmth along the Equator and off the western coast of Mexico with the oncoming El Niño. The recent 20-year climatology highlights much better than an older 1991-2020 baseline.
Atlantic Ocean Temperatures | SST Analysis (June 8 00z)
The Atlantic remains cooler than past 2-decades across the Main Development Region [MDR] from the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean) to the Canary Islands and coast of Africa. The North Atlantic off the East Coast and into the mid-latitudes is also quite cool.
Thank you for reaching the end of this post! Hopefully you enjoyed the tour of the global tropics and what’s coming in the weeks/months ahead in the tropics here on Weather Trader on Substack.
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For 2026 Hurricane Season: Every 6 or 12 hours, we get an update including these model output
ECMWF EPS full-physics ensembles … 50 perturbed members + control/HRES
ECMWF AIFS-Ensemble (data driven) … another 50 members + control
ECMWF AIFS-Single … a special deterministic system that has exceptional skill
NOAA GEFSv12 Ensembles … 30 perturbed members + control
NOAA GFSv16 … 13-km high resolution global deterministic
UK Met Office MOGREPS lagged ensembles … global 14-km 72-members per day
Environment Canada ensembles + Germany ICON + Australia BOM Unified Model
New Google WeatherNext 1000-member ensemble system (!) more on that in future post
My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropics along 5°N to 10°N is where moist air can ascend and form thunderstorms or like a convective pot boiling over = convection. In the coming weeks, especially into late June, we’ll look for areas of disturbed weather — which means persistent convection — and potential formation of low pressure swirls along the ITCZ with tropical waves, in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (America) with decaying frontal boundaries, and other pathways like tropical transition or subtropical cut-off lows. Lots of options/ways to form a tropical storm in the Atlantic in any given season.
The Bermuda High —> Azores High in the subtropics usually keeps things quiet in the latitude around 30°N and suppresses the ITCZ to the south in late May into June. On the periphery of the Bermuda High, moisture plumes out of the Caribbean into the Gulf and then Texas + Southeast.
- Milepost
- 953 · laid 2026-06-08T01:50:57.759000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/june-7-2026-sunday-tropical-update
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- 520a1c9e441dd2aec9f2b7e6bb4051803b814ca6c8976b724aa56d9e782ee595
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