Monday Headline: Tropical Disturbance over northern Mexico and South Texas may emerge over the very warm waters of the Gulf [30% chance] —> and develop a circulation enough to become a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Time frame —> Wednesday

Regardless of any “named storm” development [NHC at 30%] the deep tropical moisture will inundate the coast and deliver “boatloads” — upwards of 4”-6”+ from Texas into the Mississippi River Valley over next 7-days.

Very soggy pattern!

ECMWF Cyclonic Vorticity — next 5-days

Nice way to show the low-level circulation of the “tropical disturbance” moving on land over Mexico to South Texas and then northward up the coast to Houston.

Uncertainty — track and intensity:

If the system drifts just east over the warm Gulf of Mexico (America) for even 12-24 hours, then significant tropical cyclone development would occur — from mid-range TS to even a hurricane (outlier event) —> always a very fine line between a LOT happening and NOT much.

Integrated Vapor Transport — Next 6-days

The deep layer tropical moisture plume is pulled northward … with the circulation of the tropical low embedded … and then it all shifts eastward beneath a strong Canadian trough.

The influence of the mid-latitude weather system (strong trough for mid-June) will provide upper-level jet stream energy to provide a “baroclinic kick” to the tropical disturbance OVER land.

This unusual situation can occur when a surface low encounters the jet stream quadrant (right rear) and phases to increase convergence and ascent —> intensification of the surface circulation.

ECMWF 06z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

The red PWAT > 2” and even some 3” to 4” areas embedded within the tropical low. Note how the system retains its circulation / coherence while within the frontal boundary draped along the Deep South / Gulf coast.

This is a recipe for HUGE rainfall totals with daytime heating + tropical moisture.

Zooming Out on Atlantic

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 06z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

Saharan Air — African Dust Next 10-days

A moderate Dust Layer (with Saharan Air) moving across the Main Development Region — and will reach the Caribbean in 3-4 days before decaying/wringing out with gravity and some convection/storms. Another SAL emerges in 5-6 days to repeat the pattern — typical for mid-to-late June.

Sea Surface Temperatures + Anomaly | Atlantic

The eastern Atlantic much cooler than normal < 26°C (green actual SST map) and blue anomaly (chilly) —> signal for stability and difficulty sustaining tropical convection = no storm development and squelching of tropical waves.

Global SST Anomaly

El Niño underway! Check out the very warm SST anomaly along the equatorial Pacific

Multivariate ENSO Index (v2) Rises / Warms

NHC —> 30% chance of Development

Saharan Air Layer highly apparent in the Satellite Imagery — dry and warm!

Tropical Wave Analysis: n = 4 in Atlantic + 1 in Eastern Pacific = none developing.

HUGE Rainfall Totals for mid-June

Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 9-days

10-day ECMWF Ensemble Median (middle of distribution at each model grid point)

ECMWF 06z | Precipitation + MSLP | Next 6-days

Surface low ~1000 mb does develop right along the Texas coast — we’ll see if it can emerge over the open ocean waters!

Weather Pattern: 500 mb Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

Very strong mid-level trough maintains its grip on the Midwest and Great Lakes for the next 10-days. The flow out of the Northwest is straight from the Arctic = cool and dry … very intense trough for mid-June.

A Pacific origin trough swoops into the replace the Canadian vortex into next weekend.

500-mb Wind Speed + streamlines

Next 15-days AIFS Ensemble Storm Tracks —> aside from NW Gulf near coast of Texas —> complete ghost town through end of June

Eastern Pacific — One area of interest Invest 93E (30% chance)

Western Pacific Typhoon — Slow but steady development of a system in 7-days

Full physics model through 6-days, roughly 50% chance of storm formation

AIFS-Single 06z through 10-days —> typhoon

AIFS-Ensemble Tracks through 6-days — higher chance and more westward track before recurving northward in 7-8 days