Tropical Waves across Africa are not particularly robust

The Atlantic tropical basin is very quiet for late June, and that’s not surprising in any given year. However, with (Super) El Niño intensifying across the Tropical Pacific, there’s little expectation that tropical storm activity will pick up anytime soon. However, the basin’s overall “health” or favorability will improve through July into August as the ocean temperatures warm significantly and the impacts of Saharan Air Layers (SAL) and dust subside. Tropical waves will have a better opportunity to maintain low-level circulation as they emerge from the African coast into the "Main Development Region” (MDR) of Atlantic basin.

Early today GeoColor satellite imagery

A large plume of Saharan dust pushing through the Caribbean with the characteristic milky hue. The clouds within the SAL are typically puffy cumulus but it is difficult to even produce a shower. The Atlantic is calm with minimal wave heights 3-6 feet at most. Wave height 8 PM ET

2026 compared to 2025 for the last 7-days:

Huge warming in the Pacific … but cooling in the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere, significantly!

Headline Tropical Cyclone Tracks — for the next 15-days from ECMWF EPS 12z

Help support this newsletter (nearing post 1,000!) —> June 2026 Coupon

Flagship model: Canada GEM 12z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

Atlantic Basin Simulated Water Vapor Satellite — Next 10-days

Heading into July, the Atlantic basin remains chaotic with many small scale features that do spin cyclonically but are cold-core or result of upper-level troughs.

Tropical waves in the Main Development Region generate convection but none are catching fire.

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

Fairly decent tropical PWATs in the central Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic, but nothing developing in late-June. Into next week, another Saharan Air Layer scours the MDR clear again.

Atlantic Basin — Quiet —> almost July 2026 but one feature 10% chance

Tropical Waves … multiple across the 2 basins but nothing active in the Atlantic. 50% chance of something in the Eastern Pacific this week. The previous areas of interest did not develop last week.

Sea Surface Temperatures still below 26°F reaching well into the MDR (green coloring)

Warmer than normal in the subtropics due to persistent weak winds and a strong subtropical high pressure (Bermuda high —> Azores high)

But still cooler than typical for end of June in the MDR

Change in the Mediterranean over the past 10-days due to “Heat Dome”

Saharan Air Layer with African Dust — next 10 days

NASA GEOS-5 shows a whopper in the Central Atlantic during next week

Zooming out to North Africa — origin of the Saharan Air Layers + Sand/Dust

Satellite Imagery — little active convection across the entire Atlantic tropics

Gulf of Mexico is devoid of showers and storms

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin — area at 50% this week

Nothing imminent, but area of convection over the warm waters could become our next tropical storm

Precipitable Water Next 10-days does show a weak TD/TS formation

Western Pacific Typhoon Season

ECMWF 12z developed 95W into a Super Typhoon

926 mb —> Super Typhoon … close to Category 5. Very large typhoon as its origin is in the deep tropics in the monsoon trough along the equator … however, ECMWF was been biased way too intense (and large) with Mekkhala, so we’ll tap the brakes on this one for now.

SSTs now in the 28°C to 30°C range across the entire Western Pacific up to about 30°N latitude

Full Physics ECMWF Ensembles | Next 15-days | Active Storm Tracks