Tropical disturbance off the Florida / Southeast U.S. coastline is enhancing rainfall but there is no organized surface circulation, and no further development is expected. Strong storms with a frontal boundary are moving through NYC this evening to help cool off the sultry / humid air mass stuck over the big cities.

Overall, the tropical Atlantic is mostly quiet. Some areas of convection in the far eastern Main Development Region related to a tropical wave that’s hold on, and another just about to come off the African coast. The latter is very robust with massive thunderstorms.

Next 10-days with the ECMWF simulated water vapor imagery

The main features in the tropics: Saharan Air Layers (very dry) and the ITCZ with embedded tropical waves. The timing needs to be just right for the tropical waves to avoid being wiped out by the SAL (and dust) which is stable and very warm at lower-levels. We have 2 main opportunities in the next 7-10 days.

Vorticity Next 10-days | ECMWF 12z

The Atlantic basin is hostile mainly with dry and stable Saharan Air Layers + dust cutting into the top half of the Main Development Region (MDR).

We’re heading into mid-August —> so overall conditions/environment in MDR improve with climatology, and even the strong wind shear from El Niño won’t wreck the eastern half of the tropical Atlantic basin so much as the shutting down the Gulf and Caribbean.

ECMWF Ensemble 12z full-physics tracks next 15-days

The two candidate tropical waves have good ensemble support. The second (next week) will have a better opportunity to turn into a hurricane or even a major hurricane into August 15-17. I’d put the chance of a H/MH at 20%.

Chance of 2 named storms in the next 15-days? I’d say 50%

Next 7-days Blend of Models Precipitation

ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics

Flagship AIFS Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days —> tropical waves churn westward, and into second week of August, quite a few tropical waves in the MDR that look healthy enough, and we’ll have to watch into next week. I see at least 3 candidates with 2 better chance of survival.

Atlantic Tropics showing some signs of life — watching tropical waves

Huge Saharan Dust Layer coming into the Atlantic — image from earlier Friday

Tropical Waves — Lined up 7 deep from the Eastern Pacific to coast of Africa

2 of the waves in the parade in the Central/Eastern Pacific are now marked with 20% to 30% chance of development in next 7-days. None in the Atlantic (yet).

Here’s our Tropical Wave coming off Africa with a massive convective blowup, and another upstream in 2-days

Sea Surface Temperatures plenty warm now > 28°C (red)

The warmth in the MDR is quickly expanding to carve into the cool <26°C water from the cold Canary Current, so I think any tropical waves that stay below 20°N latitude will have sufficient warm water to develop.

Tropical Equatorial Africa — More waves in the pipeline or “wave train”

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