Top Story this week in the Global Tropics will be a massive Super Typhoon developing out of the far SE corner of the basin, crossing through the Marianna Islands, and reaching near Taiwan in 10-days. Intensity forecasts show potential for sub-900 mb pressure —> Category 5+

The Super Typhoon has plenty of very warm ocean water (SST > 29°C) but also very deep warm pool. Global Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential:

Zoom into the Atlantic basin: plenty of tropical cyclone fuel in the Caribbean and even the Gulf heading into July, already. But the Western Pacific warm pool is like a deep bath tub of very warm water compared to the Atlantic, which is still chilly (little fuel) ENE of the Lesser Antilles.

The Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly across the tropical central and eastern Pacific is full tilt El Niño. Also note a “warm blob” in the North Pacific, and a “cold blob” in the North Atlantic. These are created by the accumulation of storms and high-pressure cells — strong / weak winds working on the ocean surface through waves + mixing.

Headline Tropical Cyclone Tracks — for the next 15-days from ECMWF EPS 12z

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

Fairly decent tropical PWATs in the central Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic, but nothing developing into early July. Another major Saharan Air Layer scours the MDR clear again — you can see the PWAT front (dry) blasting into the Lesser Antilles this weekend.

Atlantic Basin — Quiet for next 7-days (or much, much longer)

Tropical Waves … multiple across the 2 basins but nothing convectively active in the Atlantic. 90% chance that Invest 95E becomes a TD or TS in next 2-days.

Sea Surface Temperatures still below 26°F reaching well into the MDR (green coloring)

Warmer than normal in the subtropics due to persistent weak winds and a strong subtropical high pressure (Bermuda high —> Azores high)

But still cooler than typical for end of June in the MDR

Early today GeoColor satellite imagery animation

A large plume of Saharan dust pushing through the Caribbean with the characteristic milky hue. The clouds within the SAL are typically puffy cumulus but it is difficult to even produce a shower.

Tropical Waves across Africa are not particularly robust

The Atlantic tropical basin is very quiet into early July, and that’s not surprising in any given year. However, with (Super) El Niño intensifying across the Tropical Pacific, there’s little expectation that tropical storm activity will pick up anytime soon. However, the basin’s overall “health” or favorability will improve through July into August as the ocean temperatures warm significantly and the impacts of Saharan Air Layers (SAL) and dust subside. Tropical waves will have a better opportunity to maintain low-level circulation as they emerge from the African coast into the “Main Development Region” (MDR) of Atlantic basin.

Saharan Air Layer with African Dust — next 10 days

Major plume arrives in Islands / Caribbean this weekend, and more swirling into the central Atlantic in 8-10 days, too.

Zooming out to North Africa — origin of the Saharan Air Layers + Sand/Dust

Satellite Imagery — little active convection across the entire Atlantic tropics

Gulf of Mexico does have some showers and storms along the Florida coast

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin — Invest 95E at 90%

Looks like our next Tropical Storm will form on Wednesday

Nothing more than “fish mixing” and something for NHC to do while the Atlantic remains dormant.

Max winds of 50-60 mph / 995 mb central pressure —> next name is Douglas

Western Pacific Typhoon Season

All systems go for powerhouse Invest 95W —> Super Typhoon in 5-days

ECMWF 18z develops Invest 95W into a Super Typhoon by Day 6

Some Google Deep Mind ensemble members in the 890s mb central pressure —> top end Category 5 STY

HAFS-A Mesoscale Hurricane Model cranks up 95W —> STY (927 mb) in 5-days

Full Physics ECMWF Ensembles | Next 15-days | Active Storm Tracks

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