August 9, 2026 Sunday Tropical Update
Atlantic hurricane season has come alive with multiple areas being watched. A hurricane may threaten Hawaii later in the week.
August 2026 was the warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 75.6°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+2.5°F).
August 2026 was the 22nd-driest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (-0.4in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
We’re watchin 3 areas of interest across the Atlantic basin this evening.
Atlantic — tropical waves “catch fire” but not as many survive the trip out of the deep tropics. There is a moderate chance (50%) of at least one tropical storm out of these, and one of the “survivors” could become a major hurricane in the next 2-weeks in the western part of the basin. I’d put a chance of major hurricane at 20% overall. Not too bad considering the newest NOAA seasonal forecast had a range of 0-2 major hurricanes!
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- 1003 · laid 2026-08-10T01:01:53.039000Z
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