A chronicle of American weather and climate · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
What was forecast, what happened, and the difference. Showing the 11 strongest; browse all 14 in the chronicle →
A day-8 forecast of 92.2°F for September 1 at 00Z; the station reported 62.6°F. It is the largest temperature residual in the ledger over the last 30 days.
The mean signed residual across 3,853 pairs is +2.65°F, against +0.04°F averaged over all 77 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
The mean signed residual across 4,087 pairs is +2.64°F, against +0.03°F averaged over all 77 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
The mean signed residual across 4,629 pairs is +2.62°F, against +0.02°F averaged over all 77 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
The mean signed residual across 5,707 pairs is +2.54°F, against -0.03°F averaged over all 77 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
The mean signed residual across 4,555 pairs is +2.53°F, against +0.01°F averaged over all 77 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
MP 1068 · The Ledger · YKM
The mean signed residual across 5,097 pairs is +2.51°F, against +0.00°F averaged over all 77 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
MP 1072 · The Ledger · MHL
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.23°F at day 1 and 3.65°F at day 7, over 432,892 settled forecast-observation pairs.
MP 1101 · The Ledger · The Ledger
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.23°F at day 1 and 3.61°F at day 7, over 415,341 settled forecast-observation pairs.
MP 1088 · The Ledger · The Ledger
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.23°F at day 1 and 3.53°F at day 7, over 397,924 settled forecast-observation pairs.
MP 1077 · The Ledger · The Ledger
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.23°F at day 1 and 3.51°F at day 7, over 380,314 settled forecast-observation pairs.
MP 1069 · The Ledger · The Ledger
Every dateline above is a bureau. The colour on it is that site's own accent in the network's Interstate sign system — 45 sites, each with a colour, and this one with none.