HVE The Ledger
MILEPOST 1030
The month's worst miss: NBM was 29.6°F too warm at HVE
A day-8 forecast of 92.2°F for September 1 at 00Z; the station reported 62.6°F. It is the largest temperature residual in the ledger over the last 30 days.
The forecast was issued in the 20260824T00:00Z cycle, 192 hours before valid time, and called for 92.2°F. The observation was 62.6°F — a residual of +29.6°F.
292 of the 3,118 residuals above 12°F in this window are at the same station, which is a pattern worth reading as one.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored. 2 rows in this window were excluded as a data defect rather than a forecast error.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast, day 8 Forecast Network verification ledger |
92.2 °F | normal 62.6 °F August 11–September 10, 2026 |
| residual Forecast Network verification ledger |
29.6 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 3,118 August 11–September 10, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1030 · laid 2026-09-10T12:29:55Z
- Model
- nbm · cycle 20260824T00:00Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-08.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson - Digest
- 3ea3952b208c69005e38188266d9a57ded21423fe3fc77bde4cb3b46de9857b0
- Machine
- JSON