HII The Ledger
MILEPOST 1518
Guidance has run 6.4°F warm at HII for a month
The mean signed residual across 453 pairs is +6.39°F, against +0.13°F averaged over all 84 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At HII over September 28–October 28, 2026, it lands +6.39°F from the report, across 453 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 84 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at HII Forecast Network verification ledger |
6.39 °F | normal 0.1 °F · 1 of 84 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1518 · laid 2026-10-28T18:25:25Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 10b21940291ce3bac63cece923629c3392741794ffea724f8a5ee0f8156bbe1a
- Machine
- JSON