MVH The Ledger
MILEPOST 1343
The month's worst miss: NDFD was 42.0°F too cool at MVH
A day-4 forecast of 35.0°F for October 9 at 18Z; the station reported 77.0°F. It is the largest temperature residual in the ledger over the last 30 days.
The forecast was issued in the 20261006T06:00Z cycle, 84 hours before valid time, and called for 35.0°F. The observation was 77.0°F — a residual of -42.0°F.
261 of the 8,149 residuals above 12°F in this window are at the same station, which is a pattern worth reading as one.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored. 6 rows in this window were excluded as a data defect rather than a forecast error.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast, day 4 Forecast Network verification ledger |
35 °F | normal 77.0 °F September 10–October 10, 2026 |
| residual Forecast Network verification ledger |
-42 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 8,149 September 10–October 10, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1343 · laid 2026-10-10T09:25:13Z
- Model
- ndfd · cycle 20261006T06:00Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 9f53a53b141e0ad9ca50e1e9ec583c28b4336f110047208d39979bbc72d9c864
- Machine
- JSON