NBG The Ledger
MILEPOST 1542
Guidance has run 4.1°F warm at NBG for a month
The mean signed residual across 8,665 pairs is +4.06°F, against +0.04°F averaged over all 83 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At NBG over October 1–October 31, 2026, it lands +4.06°F from the report, across 8,665 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 83 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at NBG Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.06 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 83 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1542 · laid 2026-10-31T00:25:22Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
- Digest
- 2067bf03ed8e1350da95fbdb9b08349c463e79926c76d18a6696da0ae12481cb
- Machine
- JSON