SHR The Ledger
MILEPOST 1255
The month's worst miss: NBM was 28.9°F too cool at SHR
A day-6 forecast of 58.2°F for September 14 at 00Z; the station reported 87.1°F. It is the largest temperature residual in the ledger over the last 30 days.
The forecast was issued in the 20260908T12:00Z cycle, 132 hours before valid time, and called for 58.2°F. The observation was 87.1°F — a residual of -28.9°F.
440 of the 7,552 residuals above 12°F in this window are at the same station, which is a pattern worth reading as one.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored. 6 rows in this window were excluded as a data defect rather than a forecast error.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast, day 6 Forecast Network verification ledger |
58.2 °F | normal 87.1 °F September 1–October 1, 2026 |
| residual Forecast Network verification ledger |
-28.9 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 7,552 September 1–October 1, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1255 · laid 2026-10-01T00:25:12Z
- Model
- nbm · cycle 20260908T12:00Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
- Digest
- fcdc57c3f3599450215c568ebeb323b90229ab4fc47fa4db7386b0d91e00560b
- Machine
- JSON