MVH The Ledger
MILEPOST 1339
The month's worst miss: NDFD was 32.9°F too cool at MVH
A day-3 forecast of 37.0°F for October 9 at 00Z; the station reported 69.8°F. It is the largest temperature residual in the ledger over the last 30 days.
The forecast was issued in the 20261006T06:00Z cycle, 66 hours before valid time, and called for 37.0°F. The observation was 69.8°F — a residual of -32.9°F.
254 of the 8,148 residuals above 12°F in this window are at the same station, which is a pattern worth reading as one.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored. 6 rows in this window were excluded as a data defect rather than a forecast error.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast, day 3 Forecast Network verification ledger |
37 °F | normal 69.8 °F September 9–October 9, 2026 |
| residual Forecast Network verification ledger |
-32.9 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 8,148 September 9–October 9, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1339 · laid 2026-10-09T21:25:15Z
- Model
- ndfd · cycle 20261006T06:00Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 5ee35140057b91079da64f725fcee393cf7862ec0b65cbf8123794a6081ef0b5
- Machine
- JSON