BIH The Ledger
MILEPOST 1408
The month's worst miss: NDFD was 51.0°F too cool at BIH
A day-2 forecast of 13.0°F for September 18 at 06Z; the station reported 64.0°F. It is the largest temperature residual in the ledger over the last 30 days.
The forecast was issued in the 20260916T18:00Z cycle, 36 hours before valid time, and called for 13.0°F. The observation was 64.0°F — a residual of -51.0°F.
255 of the 9,937 residuals above 12°F in this window are at the same station, which is a pattern worth reading as one.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored. 3 rows in this window were excluded as a data defect rather than a forecast error.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast, day 2 Forecast Network verification ledger |
13 °F | normal 64.0 °F September 17–October 17, 2026 |
| residual Forecast Network verification ledger |
-51 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 9,937 September 17–October 17, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1408 · laid 2026-10-17T09:25:18Z
- Model
- ndfd · cycle 20260916T18:00Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- ac51ce54a4382dc8573d40be281d7587335fb77f9d02bad4f83f8de1e5828e3c
- Machine
- JSON