Quiet until chance of snowfall and brief cold snap into next weekend across Eastern U.S

A storm system and cold front is slowly trudging through the Northeast as part of a transition to northerly and cooler flow into next week. Then, we’ll watch a much strong mid-level trough with legit Arctic air = more seasonable Mid-November temperatures and chance for snowfall across a large area with a coastal storm. Still about a week away, so the details are foggy, but the stars should align for some impactful winter weather next weekend. No such concerns for the next several days.

Some snowfall at higher elevations this weekend — as a couple Clipper systems drop out of Ontario into the Northeast and New England. Otherwise, cool rain.

The Clipper systems arrive with cooler air downstream of a strong blocking ridge … as much of the Lower 48 is under control of dryer continental air mass. Texas and south Florida are the main exceptions with much more moisture and humidity.

Total snowfall from the AIFS-Single over the past 6-forecast cycles to see the trend in coverage … 00z/06z from Friday = gangbusters with upwards of a foot or more of snow, while the surrounding cycles (and the most recent one at 18z today) are just patchy amounts of 1-3” … so we have a range of outcomes, as usual, and should operate in “ensemble space” always past day 6/7 of any forecast.

The trough is just intense enough — 540 dm — and has enough cold-air from the Canadian Arctic to provide environmental conditions favorable for winter precipitation. The blocking / Omega ridge over Canada is not going anywhere. This height anomaly animation is Thursday to next Saturday.

And, there’s our little coastal low. Not a bomb cyclone — but 999 mb —> 993 mb tracking off mid-Atlantic and New England.

In ensemble space — AIFS-ENS mean last 6 cycles — looks promising! (10-day totals of snowfall from the model ensemble mean)

And, the cold snap is brief — and only 5°F to 8°F below normal for mid-November … against the massive red “above normal” air dominating the Lower 48 and Canada.

RRFS Simulated Radar through Monday 7 AM ET

And, RRFS 850 mb Wind Speed — very cool to see the new NOAA model at high-resolution with forecasts to 3-days … with coverage across the Pacific including the Gulf of Alaska —> great for atmospheric river forecasting. Parade of beautiful cyclones mainly crashing into Alaska panhandle and western Canada next 1-2 weeks.

Temperature Analysis Friday at 10:00 PM ET

Cooler — more seasonable — 47°F lower 48 average

Temperature Analysis | Anomaly from Normal

Lower 48 was 1.5ºF above normal

Low Temperatures Saturday Morning

24% of spatial area below freezing and we’re up to 36 million population

High Temperatures on Saturday —> seasonable

High Temperatures on Sunday | mainly 60s yellow and orange 70s

High Temperatures next 9-Days through November 16th

Well above normal temperatures continue into mid-November with a brief cold snap into next weekend — but not too impressive

My favorite parameter — precipitable water | ECMWF 18Z next 6-days

Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days | ECMWF AIFS 18z

Parade of sometimes strong Pacific troughs — crashing southward along the Pacific NW coast … until perhaps California gets involved in 7 to 10-days.

The ridging in the central U.S. and across Canada means a warm central and Eastern U.S. but we are watching the Northeast for shortwaves, and then a cut-off on the downstream flank of the omega block —> coastal storm

Height Anomaly Pattern | Next 10-days | AIFS 18z | Flagship model

Massive troughs on both sides of the Omega blocking ridge — exciting weather pattern, but Arctic air is not forming readily — warm in Canada.

500 hPa Temperature is the best way to show the “polar vortex” intrusions associated with the cut-off troughs on either side of Omega block.

Nice to see the -40°C “cold pool” at 500 mb across the Canadian Arctic and Greenland — suggesting the “Polar Vortex” intensifies — at least at mid-levels. Remember, El Niño adds about 1°C of global warming emanating from the tropical Pacific — and all of the teleconnections that come with that — but we won’t cancel winter!

European Weather Pattern

\Huge cold dip across Eastern Europe with a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex and then a general movement of that Greenland created cold toward Scandinavia.

Snowfall across Europe — next 10-days … plenty across the north and in the mountains, but still too warm when there’s moisture across much of western Europe and UK.

Springtime in Australia —> widespread 100s across Western Australia, and chilly 40s and 50s across Victoria and 60s and 70s across New South Wales, but hot along the coast.

One more map of global temperatures — Africa! Highs on Saturday

We rarely see these maps of global temperatures — they are beautiful, when nicely colored and annotated. You need to know your geography!

NWS NDFD Next 3-days precipitation

Blend of Models Precipitation Next 10-days

Blend of Models Snowfall Next 10-days

We now have a legitimate chance of snow in the 6-10 day time frame!

Snowfall Next 10-days | ECMWF Ensemble 12z Median

Probability of 1-inch or more of snowfall through November 16th

5-day Chunk of Temperature Anomaly | Nov 6 - Nov 10

5-day Chunk of Temperature Anomaly | Nov 11 - Nov 15

5-day Chunk of Temperature Anomaly | Nov 16 - Nov 20

North Atlantic Hurricane Season | 10% chance of Kyle

Kyle didn’t happen — the low-level center never got organized well before strong wind shear with the upper-level trough transitioned the system to more extratropical … this is curtains for the Atlantic season, surely? Yes.

Eastern and Central Pacific | Tropical Storm Pena

Yet another Tropical Storm has formed well south of Hawaii named Pena, and should become a hurricane early next week, maybe.

Pena may not become a hurricane — just remain a strong tropical storm, as the environment out here in mid-November is typically very hostile with wind shear.

WP31 —> A new Tropical Storm has formed and will become a strong Typhoon — likely Category 2 or 3. Next name is CEMPAKA

Thank you for visiting / reading — always more to come!

Visit Global Tropical Cyclones w/Dr. Pielke Jr. for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site with much new research including a calibrated “Best Track” and historical tropical cyclone browser with plenty of interesting features like rankings of storms by their IKE (size). ACE up to 951

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