Major hurricane status expected but some weakening prior to landfall late Friday

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Hurricane Isaias 09L (105 mph winds) and expected to become major later Friday

• Steady intensification to 100-knots on Friday in the central Gulf over high oceanic heat content water

• Due to wind shear, it is likely that the system peaks in strength before reaching the coast as a hurricane, and may actually discombobulate shortly after landfall.

• However, impacts will be serious at landfall in Florida panhandle with expected 100 mph wind gusts — and inland wind damage w/storm’s fast forward motion

Over the central Gulf — on top of Loop Current —> close to a major hurricane!

New: Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential —> Forecast Currents

Precipitable Water — My Favorite Parameter

My favorite parameter — precipitable water — is very busy this evening! October weather patterns are both tropical and winter like with a more energetic jet stream combining with tropical storms and hurricanes.

Isaias will intensify into a major hurricane but encounter strong upper-level winds + wind shear as it reaches the Gulf coast. This become a negative trough interaction upon reaching the northern Gulf.

Similar story as Thursday’s update: wind shear is good news as Hurricane Isaias will hopefully be knocked down a peg (maybe to Category 1)

However, this isn’t going to be a picnic, either, with significant impacts inland.

More good news is that Isaias will be moving very fast — accelerating through the Tennessee River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday.

You can see the trough to the west of Isaias cutting across Texas into the Western Gulf on the water vapor imagery

Timing for Landfall — late Friday evening near Pensacola

Google Weather Next 3 Cones — Highly Agreeable but closer to Destin

My new “Beyond the Cone” maps — experimental but colorful and helpful/informative, at least I hope so! —> Tropics Earth

Weather Next 3 from Google has 30% of members Cat 2, and now 70% Cat 3 for maximum intensity, but hopefully weakening closer to landfall

NDFD Wind Impacts > 100 mph gusts along the coast and inland with hurricane force gusts into central Alabama

Wind gusts in the 40s into North Georgia, including Atlanta

Rainfall will be heaviest near Tallahassee — up to 7” and around the center near the landfall location from Mobile to Destin

Blend of Models Next 7-days shows the heavy rain from Isaias and remnants of Hurricane Rachel from Southern California into the Great Basin.

IR Satellite — Squall Cloud | GOES-East | Rest of Atlantic Quiet

Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days | AIFS 18z Flagship Model

The IVT loop is pretty cool, as you see the 3 tropical systems (Rachel, Simon, and Isaias) all sort of get swept away around a briefly strong ridge that builds across the Gulf.

Rachel’s remnants head through far Southern California into the Southwest U.S.

Eastern Pacific Tropics

Rachel is a tropical storm — maintaining some convection. Simon is a very small but rapidly intensifying hurricane right off the coast of southern Mexico

Rachel will still be a named and functional Tropical Storm at landfall early Sunday morning, and then become post-tropical heading through Yuma into southern Utah.

NHC takes Simon to 120-knots — Category 4

And the majority of WN3 members are Cat 3/4

Western Pacific Tropics

JTWC still forecasts a maximum of 120-knots for Koguma

Weather Next 3 has dropped most of the Category 5 members

Visit Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information, as well as my original climatlas.com/tropical site with much new research including a calibrated “Best Track” and historical tropical cyclone browser with plenty of interesting features like rankings of storms by their IKE (size). ACE up to 751

Forecast Eagle maps explorer is operational and serving many product!

Satellite imagery from Squall Cloud. Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly!

Please also subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks. Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football and global-tropical-cyclones.com and precip.earth and forecastcanada.com and weathertrader.com and forecastscores.com