{ "number": 999, "headline": "August 4, 2026 Tuesday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Atlantic remains closed for business until next week when a break in the Saharan Air Layer infused dust may allow tropical waves to catch fire.", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-08-05", "published": "2026-08-05T01:16:02.791000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is forecast post number 997: Day 216 of 2026.

Day 65 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | Still only 2 Named Storms

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Welcome to 1 new subscriber, and 2 renewing paid subscribers and other new followers. Even with a very quiet hurricane season, we are steadily expanding! Your trust and support is greatly appreciated. Forecast post 1,000 on Friday!

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Extreme Fire Danger \u2014> air quality alerts for ongoing fires and smoke across Washington and Oregon with more variable upper-level and near surface winds allow the plumes to drift westward toward the coast.

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Huge plumes of Saharan desert dust still coming off the African continent to squelch and suppress tropical convection. The Atlantic basin remains dead. This part of the puzzle is less related to El Ni\u00f1o and is a typical SAL + dust inhibitor that usually decreases by mid-August.

But as part of El Ni\u00f1o, the tropical waves head westward in the Main Development Region (MDR), and encounter strong wind shear and interact with upper-level troughs = complete buzzkill for storm formation \u2014 at least until they can reach the Eastern Pacific or even the Central Pacific (like Dolphin, which was probably an African Easterly Wave, too) .

Seeing some signs of a brief window of more favorable conditions in the MDR into next week, but still very weak signals.

CONUS Water Vapor

Eastern Pacific: No activity for the next several days \u2014> typical for the EPAC as the basin typically bursts with activity, but watching 2 waves into next week for development.

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Typhoon Dolphin (12W) at major hurricane strength with a tight inner-core surrounded by massive breadth of outer bands.

Beautiful Typhoon Dolphin this morning \u2014 strong inner-core surrounded by a massive outer band / galaxy structure \u2014> 105 knots (Category 3)

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North America Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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  1. A tropical disturbance approaches the eastern coast of Florida later in the week with plenty of tropical moisture. Maybe something to monitor aside from uptick in rainfall.

  2. Strong trough swirls over southern Canada anchored to Hudson Bay \u2014> cooler and unsettled across the Great Lakes and Northeast

Next 3-days of Precipitation for CONUS from NDFD

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Next 7-days Blend of Models Precipitation

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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics

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Saharan Air Layers like giant frontal boundaries sweeping through the Main Development Region with tropical waves to the south in the ITCZ/monsoon trough

Strong tropical wave at lower latitudes moving west but it flattens out as it heads westward, and deals with a SAL

We\u2019re heading into Cape Verde season with tropical waves more robust and conditions in the MDR better even in the face of the El Ni\u00f1o, so we need to monitor everything regardless of the negative background environment.

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Mid-Level 500 mb Height Anomaly next 10-days

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Similar story as yesterday: Mid-August appears unsettled across the Great Lakes and Northeast with a persistent trough anchored over the Hudson Bay \u2026 and that means temperatures are knocked down from what could be the dog days of August with heat domes. Good news \u2014 as we are quickly running out of summer.

Current Temperatures \u2014 7:30 PM ET

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Current Temperature Anomaly \u2014 7:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 average temperatures were -0.1\u00b0F below normal

High Temperatures next 9-days \u2014> August 13th (Thursday)

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Major heat remains across the Western U.S. and Texas, but still not seeing any major heat waves for the Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, or the Northeast through August 13th. 90s are seasonable for mid-August, so I don\u2019t consider that record \u201cheat dome\u201d level

Low Temperatures Wednesday Morning

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More 40s popping up in the northern Rockies with 60s into the Great Lakes and Northeast \u2014 warmer than Tuesday morning.

High Temperatures on Wednesday

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Only 109 million population at least 90\u00b0F with little coverage east of the Mississippi, and oddly enough, Maine hotter than many areas on Wednesday

Next 7-days | Week 1 Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly

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Week 2 Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly

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Atlantic Tropics \u2014 not entirely left for dead: <10% chance through 2-weeks of ensemble members producing a tropical system

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Dead quiet for next 7-days and ensembles show 15-days of \u201cghost town\u201d through August 19th except for 2 members with a hurricane \u2014 so it\u2019s not impossible to create one in 2026!

AIFS Machine Learning Next 15-days: still shows action out of the MDR with higher / moderate signal of something relatively weak developing past mid-August

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Monday Afternoon Situation in the Tropical Atlantic \u2014 high pressure in control and a strong subtropical (death) ridge.

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Over 597 dm at 500 mb centered at 25\u00b0N and 45\u00b0W is NOT a signal favorable for Atlantic MDR tropical storm formation.

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Tropical Waves \u2014 Lined up 6 deep from the Eastern Pacific to off coast of Africa

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2 of the easterly waves in the parade are now marked with 20% chance of development in next 7-days.

A healthy tropical wave is moving westward across the MDR but it\u2019s not expected to survive.

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Tropical Atlantic Convection from Squall Cloud last 24-hours showing the evolution of the tropical wave

SST and Anomaly

Sub-26\u00b0C = green still cutting into the MDR through the central Atlantic but that area is being reduced day by day. That\u2019s near the 30-year climatology so the \u201cbare minimum\u201d. Atlantic is not quite yet open for business until you get in to the Gulf and Caribbean, and there the wind shear is wiping everything out \u2014> shredder/graveyward.

NASA Dust (GEOS-5) \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth at lower levels. Enormous SAL event happening now, and will continue for the next 5-days and not stopping after that!

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Flagship AIFS Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days \u2014> tropical waves churn westward, and into second week of August, quite a few tropical waves in the MDR quite evidence, but not quite \u201ccatching fire\u201d to form a tropical storm.

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Eastern Pacific Typhoon Basin

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2 areas in the deep tropics associated with long-life tropical waves from the Atlantic \u2026 only 20% in next 7-days, but I think the eastern wave could become a hurricane and track east of Hawaii \u2014 at least according to recent AIFS cycles.

Western Pacific Typhoon Basin

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Typhoon Dolphin is still going \u2014 and has kept a small inner-core structure within a galaxy spiral of outer bands. Intensity around 105 knots (Category 3)

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Due west track \u2014 but JTWC does not indicate landfall \u2014 and that is probably a stale forecast through 5-days, as the model suites show a China landfall by Sunday 00z.

SSTs \u2014> massive expanse of 30\u00b0C to over 31\u00b0C water in the path of Dolphin

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Ensemble Tracks into China from Google Deep Mind no longer shows the northward bend prior to landfall. Instead, it\u2019s slightly slower movement but definitely into China by Sunday.

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EPS 12z (full-physics) same track with slowing \u2014 but landfall into China.

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ECMWF 18z | Updated has landfall at 00z Sunday with large wind field and near major hurricane intensity maximum winds + pressure

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Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z shows evolution of Dolphin into China. Quite the change from 24-hours ago when there was still much uncertainty about landfall.

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Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Extreme Fire Danger \u2014> air quality alerts for ongoing fires and smoke across Washington and Oregon with more variable upper-level and near surface winds allow the plumes to drift westward toward the coast.

Huge plumes of Saharan desert dust still coming off the African continent to squelch and suppress tropical convection. The Atlantic basin remains dead. This part of the puzzle is less related to El Ni\u00f1o and is a typical SAL + dust inhibitor that usually decreases by mid-August.

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