July 28, 2026 Tuesday Tropical Update
Typhoon Dolphin is well on its way to Super status. Genevieve in Eastern Pacific holding onto Category 4. Atlantic basin remains dead quiet until further notice.
July 2026 was the warmest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 76.9°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 74.4°F (+2.5°F).
July 2026 was the 26th-driest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.5in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.9in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Atlantic tropics remain dead quiet this evening — with very minimal convective activity with 4 tropical waves from Africa to the Caribbean and Central America. Saharan Dust Layers continue to track westward with the trade winds combined with strong wind shear = inhospitable for tropical storm formation until further notice!
Two systems in the Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Fausto tracking north of Hawaii, and powerhouse Major Hurricane Genevieve back up to Category 4 (115-knots) off the coast of Mexico — but should be slowly weakening again soon.
Typhoon Dolphin (12W) will continue to intensify to Category 5 but the structure seems quite fragile with a pinhole eye appearing and then becoming obscured in the following hour. Current intensity is 125-knots, just under Super Typhoon status
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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics
Easy to see the Saharan Air Layers like giant frontal boundaries sweeping through the Main Development Region. Plenty of tropical moisture in the ITCZ and monsoon trough at roughly 10°N and especially right off the coast of Africa, but tropical waves can’t catch fire, and instead, are immediately snuffed out.
Strong troughs continue to dip through the Eastern U.S. and even into the Southeast.
ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | North America
Major Hurricane Genevieve (07E) will track WNW over next few days, and then weaken over cooler water by 4-days to a tropical storm
A sharp trough digs into the eastern U.S. and even the Southeast with a frontal boundary hung up along the Gulf coast —> focus for more rainfall and squelching any heat dome thoughts.
Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days
Troughing and flow out of Canada continues across the Eastern U.S. with two storm system forming across the Northeast during the next week
Genevieve remains at Category 4 intensity
Fausto passing safely north of the Hawaiian Islands as a weak tropical storm
The rest of the Atlantic tropical basin is quiet — while tropical waves are still being produced over Africa, but nothing catching fire. Instead, the waves seem to find much better conditions in the Eastern Pacific.
Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 7-days
Dry as a bone and hot across Texas and beneath the Western U.S. heat dome with minimal monsoon moisture making it out of the Pacific. Huge rainfall totals yet again across the Gulf coast and Northeast, and now the Midwest.
Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days
Northeast —> trough after trough —> cooler and unsettled (no heat dome!)
Massive Western Heat Dome builds into the Southwest —> very hot and the monsoon moisture flow is shut down for the next several days.
NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours —> Friday Evening
RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:15 PM ET
RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly | 8:15 PM ET
Lower 48 was 2.2ºF above normal
High Temperatures next 9-days through Thursday, August 6th
Major heat across the Western half of the Lower 48 with the Great Lakes and Northeast largely escaping it with much cooler 70s and 80s rather than 100s or even 130°F in Death Valley.
Low Temperatures Wednesday Morning
Still comfortably cool across the Great Lakes Northeast with 50s and 60s., and even some 40s lurking in Ontario
High Temperatures on Wednesday
Lower 48 average high at 89.4°F with 9.5% of the Lower 48 real estate over 100°F
ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 14-days
Week 1 —> July 28 to August 3
Week 2 —> August 4 to August 10
Atlantic Tropics —> dead quiet for next 7-days and ensembles show 15-days of “ghost town” through August 12th
NASA Dust (GEOS-5) — Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth at lower levels.
Tropical Waves are more convectively active over the African continent this evening (squall.cloud) — a strong one a couple days from emerging into the Atlantic
AIFS Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days —> tropical waves churn westward but nothing catches fire or even looks like it — and into second week of August, the trade winds are screaming westward through the Caribbean.
Eastern Pacific | Cat 4 Hurricane Genevieve and Tropical Storm Fausto
Satellite Imagery for Central and Eastern Pacific basin: Squall Cloud link
Fausto has decoupled from its convection and is now a remnant low.
Western Pacific Typhoon Basin
Massive Super Typhoon Dolphin rapidly intensified far out by Wake island but since has plateaued with “eyewall replacement cycle”
Current Intensity 125-knots — Dolphin hit a speed bump with a rather soon onset eyewall replacement cycle as it formed a pinhole eye. A few hours ago, Dolphin looked great — also this is an incredible satellite image in terms of color table — it may become my new second favorite. More of this WPAC floater at squall.cloud
JTWC forecast is up to 155-knots at 72-hours (continued intensification)
SSTs —> massive expanse of 30°C to 31°C water in the path of Dolphin —> Super Typhoon in 3-4 days
Ensemble Track to Southern Japan and/or into China from Google Deep Mind + ECMWF EPS
HAFS-A still with numerical stability issues with the full-tilt buzzsaw structure of Dolphin in next 48-72 hours —> Category 5+
HAFS-A drops to 913 mb —> Category 5 but less aggressive than previous 2 days
As Dolphin heads WNW, it will expand in size —> to massive proportions.
Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z shows evolution of Super Typhoon — will be long-lasting = lots of ACE and potential impacts to Japan or Korea or China. Way too soon to say.
See Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information!
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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
- Milepost
- 994 · laid 2026-07-29T01:34:58.322000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/july-28-2026-tuesday-tropical-update
- Digest
- 1f8a2415b982474eab6e06dcb5272291ed8240e0186bd92f6f3ebb7d2e566d54
- Machine
- JSON