{ "number": 994, "headline": "July 28, 2026 Tuesday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Typhoon Dolphin is well on its way to Super status. Genevieve in Eastern Pacific holding onto Category 4. Atlantic basin remains dead quiet until further notice.", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-29", "published": "2026-07-29T01:34:58.322000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "

Atlantic tropics remain dead quiet this evening \u2014 with very minimal convective activity with 4 tropical waves from Africa to the Caribbean and Central America. Saharan Dust Layers continue to track westward with the trade winds combined with strong wind shear = inhospitable for tropical storm formation until further notice!

Two systems in the Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Fausto tracking north of Hawaii, and powerhouse Major Hurricane Genevieve back up to Category 4 (115-knots) off the coast of Mexico \u2014 but should be slowly weakening again soon.

Typhoon Dolphin (12W) will continue to intensify to Category 5 but the structure seems quite fragile with a pinhole eye appearing and then becoming obscured in the following hour. Current intensity is 125-knots, just under Super Typhoon status

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This is forecast post number 993: Day 209 of 2026.

Day 58 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | 2 Named Storms

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics

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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | North America

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 7-days

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Dry as a bone and hot across Texas and beneath the Western U.S. heat dome with minimal monsoon moisture making it out of the Pacific. Huge rainfall totals yet again across the Gulf coast and Northeast, and now the Midwest.


Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours \u2014> Friday Evening

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:15 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly | 8:15 PM ET

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Lower 48 was 2.2\u00baF above normal

High Temperatures next 9-days through Thursday, August 6th

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Major heat across the Western half of the Lower 48 with the Great Lakes and Northeast largely escaping it with much cooler 70s and 80s rather than 100s or even 130\u00b0F in Death Valley.

Low Temperatures Wednesday Morning

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Still comfortably cool across the Great Lakes Northeast with 50s and 60s., and even some 40s lurking in Ontario

High Temperatures on Wednesday

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Lower 48 average high at 89.4\u00b0F with 9.5% of the Lower 48 real estate over 100\u00b0F

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 14-days

Week 1 \u2014> July 28 to August 3

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Week 2 \u2014> August 4 to August 10

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Atlantic Tropics \u2014> dead quiet for next 7-days and ensembles show 15-days of \u201cghost town\u201d through August 12th

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NASA Dust (GEOS-5) \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth at lower levels.

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Tropical Waves are more convectively active over the African continent this evening (squall.cloud) \u2014 a strong one a couple days from emerging into the Atlantic

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AIFS Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days \u2014> tropical waves churn westward but nothing catches fire or even looks like it \u2014 and into second week of August, the trade winds are screaming westward through the Caribbean.

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Eastern Pacific | Cat 4 Hurricane Genevieve and Tropical Storm Fausto

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Satellite Imagery for Central and Eastern Pacific basin: Squall Cloud link

Fausto has decoupled from its convection and is now a remnant low.

Western Pacific Typhoon Basin

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Massive Super Typhoon Dolphin rapidly intensified far out by Wake island but since has plateaued with \u201ceyewall replacement cycle\u201d

Current Intensity 125-knots \u2014 Dolphin hit a speed bump with a rather soon onset eyewall replacement cycle as it formed a pinhole eye. A few hours ago, Dolphin looked great \u2014 also this is an incredible satellite image in terms of color table \u2014 it may become my new second favorite. More of this WPAC floater at squall.cloud

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JTWC forecast is up to 155-knots at 72-hours (continued intensification)

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SSTs \u2014> massive expanse of 30\u00b0C to 31\u00b0C water in the path of Dolphin \u2014> Super Typhoon in 3-4 days

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Ensemble Track to Southern Japan and/or into China from Google Deep Mind + ECMWF EPS

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HAFS-A still with numerical stability issues with the full-tilt buzzsaw structure of Dolphin in next 48-72 hours \u2014> Category 5+

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HAFS-A drops to 913 mb \u2014> Category 5 but less aggressive than previous 2 days

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As Dolphin heads WNW, it will expand in size \u2014> to massive proportions.

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Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z shows evolution of Super Typhoon \u2014 will be long-lasting = lots of ACE and potential impacts to Japan or Korea or China. Way too soon to say.

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See Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information!

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Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and squall.cloud and weather.football

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Atlantic tropics remain dead quiet this evening \u2014 with very minimal convective activity with 4 tropical waves from Africa to the Caribbean and Central America. Saharan Dust Layers continue to track westward with the trade winds combined with strong wind shear = inhospitable for tropical storm formation until further notice!

Two systems in the Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Fausto tracking north of Hawaii, and powerhouse Major Hurricane Genevieve back up to Category 4 (115-knots) off the coast of Mexico \u2014 but should be slowly weakening again soon.

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