Atlantic tropics remain very quiet this evening — with fair weather from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean and Gulf. Saharan Dust Layers continue to track westward with the trade winds. One tropical wave in the Central Atlantic Main Development region is bubbling up convection, but not being watched for tropical storm formation.

Now Operational: Squall Cloud global weather satellite viewer will soon have full MRMS radar coverage for the United States with some fun surprises.

ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics

• Easy to eyeball the Saharan Air Layers like giant frontal boundaries sweeping through the Main Development Region. Plenty of tropical moisture in the ITCZ and monsoon trough at roughly 10°N and especially right off the coast of Africa, but tropical waves can’t catch fire.

• Strong troughs continue to dip through the Eastern U.S. and even into the Southeast. We’ll need to watch the tail end of these troughs for atypical non-tropical origin formation of a large system like Bertha. However, nothing in the models as of this evening.

ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | North America

• Hurricane Fausto continues westward to pass north of Hawaii while weakening over cooler water

• Major Hurricane Genevieve (07E) will track WNW over next few days, and then weaken over cooler water by 5-days to a tropical storm

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 7-days

Dry as a bone and hot across Texas and beneath the Western U.S. heat dome

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

• Northeast —> trough after trough —> cooler and unsettled.

• Massive Western Heat Dome builds from Texas into the Southeast —> very hot and the monsoon moisture flow is shut down.

• Heat dome maintains its grip for next 7-8 days

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours —> Wednesday Evening

Western Lower 48 turning dryer in the coming days, and weeks ahead with a major heat dome building for the dog days of Summer.

Major exception: the Northeast with unsettled and wet weather due to multiple troughs and even a Nor’easter like storm system

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 9:00 PM ET

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly | 9:00 PM ET

Lower 48 was 2.9ºF above normal

High Temperatures next 9-days through Tuesday August 4th

Low Temperatures Monday Morning

Still remarkably cool across the Northeast with 50s and 60s.

High Temperatures on Monday

Lower 48 average high creeps up to 92.2°F with 15% of the Lower 48 real estate over 100°F —> heat dome baking!

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 14-days

Week 1 —> July 26 to August 2

Week 2 —> August 3 to August 8

Atlantic Tropics —> dead quiet for next 7-days+

NASA Dust — Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves

Beautiful imagery earlier off African Coast —> East Tropical Atlantic (squall.cloud)

Tropical Waves are not very active over Equatorial Africa except well to the east

Ensembles Next 15 days —> Complete Ghost Town until Aug 10th

Eastern Pacific Tropics

Satellite Imagery for Eastern Pacific basin: Squall Cloud link

Major Hurricane Genevieve at 140 mph (Category 4)

Fausto + Genevieve happily continue their lifecycles for next several days not directly affecting land

Fausto maintains Tropical Storm status skirting just north of the Hawaiian Islands

Ocean temperatures just a bit too cool for a hurricane, around 25.5°C (green) north of the Hawaiian Islands

Fausto will hold together north of Hawaii as a named system over cooler water with a vigorous circulation

Hurricane Genevieve near 942 mb tomorrow peaks near Category 5

Genevieve will survive at Major Hurricane Intensity for another 72-hours and then decay over cooler waters by 7-days

Western Pacific: Massive Super Typhoon on the way (92C)

SSTs —> massive expanse of 30°C to 31°C water in the path of developing tropical storm —> Super Typhoon in 3-4 days

HAFS-A drops to 880 mb —> Category 5

And, the system goes right over some of the warmest water on the planet

Google Deep Mind (18z) shows potential impact to Japan in 10-days, but not a sure thing with recurvature out to sea.

Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z also shows development of massive central Pacific Typhoon — will be long-lasting = lots of ACE and potential impacts to Japan.

See Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information!

Next 10-days: Ensemble Tracks (50-members ECMWF EPS 12z) shows the huge Typhoon dominating the basin