{ "number": 991, "headline": "July 26, 2026 Sunday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Atlantic tropics remain very quiet but Pacific is full tilt El Ni\u00f1o with Fausto, Genevieve, and soon a monster Super Typhoon forming out by the Dateline", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-27", "published": "2026-07-27T02:06:36.098000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "

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Atlantic tropics remain very quiet this evening \u2014 with fair weather from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean and Gulf. Saharan Dust Layers continue to track westward with the trade winds. One tropical wave in the Central Atlantic Main Development region is bubbling up convection, but not being watched for tropical storm formation.

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Two systems in the Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Fausto on its way cruise north of Hawaii in next few days, and powerhouse Major Hurricane Genevieve at Category 4 (120-knots) off the coast of Mexico

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This is forecast post number 991: Day 207 of 2026.

Day 56 of Atlantic Hurricane Season

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Welcome to new paid subscribers and supporters. Your trust and support is greatly appreciated. Nearing forecast post 1,000.

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber.

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Now Operational: Squall Cloud global weather satellite viewer will soon have full MRMS radar coverage for the United States with some fun surprises.

To Receive All Published Posts Via Email and Substack App

ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics

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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | North America

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 7-days

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Dry as a bone and hot across Texas and beneath the Western U.S. heat dome


Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

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HEAT DOME ALERT

Back above 6000 meters to end July centered on the Four Corners

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours \u2014> Wednesday Evening

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Western Lower 48 turning dryer in the coming days, and weeks ahead with a major heat dome building for the dog days of Summer.

Major exception: the Northeast with unsettled and wet weather due to multiple troughs and even a Nor\u2019easter like storm system

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 9:00 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly | 9:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 was 2.9\u00baF above normal

High Temperatures next 9-days through Tuesday August 4th

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Major heat across the Western half of the Lower 48 with the Great Lakes and Northeast largely escaping it with much cooler 70s and 80s rather than 100s.

Low Temperatures Monday Morning

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Still remarkably cool across the Northeast with 50s and 60s.

High Temperatures on Monday

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Lower 48 average high creeps up to 92.2\u00b0F with 15% of the Lower 48 real estate over 100\u00b0F \u2014> heat dome baking!

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 14-days

Week 1 \u2014> July 26 to August 2

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Week 2 \u2014> August 3 to August 8

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Atlantic Tropics \u2014> dead quiet for next 7-days+

NASA Dust \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves

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Beautiful imagery earlier off African Coast \u2014> East Tropical Atlantic (squall.cloud)

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Tropical Waves are not very active over Equatorial Africa except well to the east

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Ensembles Next 15 days \u2014> Complete Ghost Town until Aug 10th

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Eastern Pacific Tropics

Satellite Imagery for Eastern Pacific basin: Squall Cloud link

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Major Hurricane Genevieve at 140 mph (Category 4)

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Fausto + Genevieve happily continue their lifecycles for next several days not directly affecting land

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Fausto maintains Tropical Storm status skirting just north of the Hawaiian Islands

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Ocean temperatures just a bit too cool for a hurricane, around 25.5\u00b0C (green) north of the Hawaiian Islands

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Fausto will hold together north of Hawaii as a named system over cooler water with a vigorous circulation

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Hurricane Genevieve near 942 mb tomorrow peaks near Category 5

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Genevieve will survive at Major Hurricane Intensity for another 72-hours and then decay over cooler waters by 7-days

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Western Pacific: Massive Super Typhoon on the way (92C)

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SSTs \u2014> massive expanse of 30\u00b0C to 31\u00b0C water in the path of developing tropical storm \u2014> Super Typhoon in 3-4 days

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HAFS-A drops to 880 mb \u2014> Category 5

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And, the system goes right over some of the warmest water on the planet

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Google Deep Mind (18z) shows potential impact to Japan in 10-days, but not a sure thing with recurvature out to sea.

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Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z also shows development of massive central Pacific Typhoon \u2014 will be long-lasting = lots of ACE and potential impacts to Japan.

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See Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information!

Next 10-days: Ensemble Tracks (50-members ECMWF EPS 12z) shows the huge Typhoon dominating the basin

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and soon squall.cloud and weather.football

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Atlantic tropics remain very quiet this evening \u2014 with fair weather from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean and Gulf. Saharan Dust Layers continue to track westward with the trade winds. One tropical wave in the Central Atlantic Main Development region is bubbling up convection, but not being watched for tropical storm formation.

Two systems in the Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Fausto on its way cruise north of Hawaii in next few days, and powerhouse Major Hurricane Genevieve at Category 4 (120-knots) off the coast of Mexico

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