July 24, 2026 Friday Tropical Update
Atlantic tropics very quiet but Pacific is full tilt El Niño with Fausto, Genevieve, and Noul, and more to come.
July 2026 was the warmest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 76.9°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 74.4°F (+2.5°F).
July 2026 was the 26th-driest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.5in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.9in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Atlantic tropics are very quiet this afternoon — with great sailing weather from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean and Gulf. Saharan Dust Layers continue to track westward with the trade winds.
Two systems in the Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Fausto on its way to near Hawaii in 5-6 days, and newly formed Tropical Depression Genevieve, which should become (finally) the basin’s first major hurricane in 2026.
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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics
Easy to eyeball the Saharan Air Layers like giant frontal boundaries sweeping through the Main Development Region. Plenty of tropical moisture in the ITCZ and monsoon trough at roughly 10°N and especially right off the coast of Africa, but tropical waves can’t catch fire.
Strong troughs continue to dip through the Eastern U.S. and even into the Southeast. We’ll need to watch the tail end of these troughs for atypical non-tropical origin formation of a large system like Bertha. Nothing showing up in the models right now, but these features are inherently low predictability 5-7 days out, like Bertha
ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | North America
Hurricane Fausto continues westward toward Hawaii
Next up is likely Major Hurricane Genevieve (07E) just now forming off the coast of Mexico over very warm ocean water
Mid-Summer atmospheric river impacts the Pacific Northwest and California coastline. Not expecting precipitation very far south, however.
Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 12z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days
Troughing and flow out of Canada continues across the Eastern U.S. with a strong storm system forming across the Northeast into middle of next week.
Genevieve underway — should be named in the next 12-hours as a tropical storm.
Fausto may survive in some weakened capacity to impact the Hawaiian Islands, as AIFS has it heading toward Honolulu
The rest of the Atlantic tropical basin is quiet — tropical waves are still being produced over Africa, but nothing catching fire. Instead, the waves seem to find much better conditions in the Eastern Pacific.
CONUS Satellite View from squall.cloud —> real-time updating link
Rain and clouds along a stalled frontal boundary along Interstates 20 and 40 including Atlanta, and the Carolinas this afternoon.
Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 7-days
Dry as a bone and hot across Texas
Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days
Northeast —> trough after trough —> cooler and unsettled.
Massive Western Heat Dome builds from Texas into the Southeast —> very hot
HEAT DOME ALERT
Back above 6000 meters to end July centered on the Four Corners
Tropical moisture fades away across the Eastern U.S. as much dry air from Canada descends southward. Monsoon moisture continues to creep northward across the U.S. Southwest. Precipitable Water next 48-hours:
NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours —> Monday Morning
Lower 48 turning dryer in the coming days, and weeks ahead with a major heat dome building for the dog days of Summer
RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 1:00 PM ET
Widespread 70s in the 1 PM ET Hour across the Great Lakes, and Northeast
RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly | 1:00 PM ET
Lower 48 was -0.3°F below normal
High Temperatures on Friday
Lower 48 average high temperature is 89.1°F with > 110°F across the U.S. Southeast, and upper-90s in south Georgia and north Florida.
Low Temperatures Saturday Morning
Still remarkably cool across the Great Lake and Northeast with 50s and 60s. Nobody can surely be complaining
High Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday
Lower 48 average high creeps up to 92°F with 16% of the Lower 48 real estate over 100°F —> heat dome baking!
ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 14-days
Week 1 —> July 24 to July 30
Week 2 —> July 31 to August 6
Atlantic Tropics —> dead quiet for next 7-days+
NASA Dust — Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves
Beautiful imagery off African Coast —> East Tropical Atlantic (squall.cloud)
More tropical waves lined up over Africa!
Ensembles Next 15 days —> Complete Ghost Town until Aug 8th
Eastern Pacific Tropics — Genevieve will follow Fausto but track more parallel to Mexico coast and off Baja in 7-days
A monster Central Pacific Hurricane —> Typhoon will form near the Dateline
Fausto doing well —> 90 knots (mid-range Category 2)
Fausto may hold together to Hawaii as a named system: EPS 00z and Deep Mind 06Z agree on many survivors
Tropical Depression 07E —> Genevieve in next 12-hours —> maybe a major hurricane by Monday
Hurricane Genevieve near 963 mb in 4-days —> major hurricane
Western Pacific —> Typhoon Noul (11W) will head into China in 36-hours
Plenty more systems lining up as El Niño in the Western Pacific is very busy. Took about 2-weeks to completely recover from Super Typhoon Bavi
Noul may reach about 85-90 knots — not quite major typhoon intensity, but outside shot of burst of rapid intensification in next 36-hours
Precipitable Water from ECMWF 18z also shows development of massive central Pacific Typhoon — will be long-lasting = lots of ACE
See Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information!
Whoa — that’s a monster circulation!
More big storms are in the pipeline — originating well east in the basin even across the Dateline in the Central Pacific. Next 10-days: Ensemble Tracks (50-members ECMWF EPS 12z) is lit up!
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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
- Milepost
- 990 · laid 2026-07-24T18:35:33.482000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/july-24-2026-friday-tropical-update
- Digest
- 6c16ad285273cf680a356b31bfee65ce8eb189d8df13403c8a592bff793bcbc9
- Machine
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