{ "number": 990, "headline": "July 24, 2026 Friday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Atlantic tropics very quiet but Pacific is full tilt El Ni\u00f1o with Fausto, Genevieve, and Noul, and more to come.", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-24", "published": "2026-07-24T18:35:33.482000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Atlantic tropics are very quiet this afternoon \u2014 with great sailing weather from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean and Gulf. Saharan Dust Layers continue to track westward with the trade winds.

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Two systems in the Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Fausto on its way to near Hawaii in 5-6 days, and newly formed Tropical Depression Genevieve, which should become (finally) the basin\u2019s first major hurricane in 2026.

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This is forecast post number 990: Day 205 of 2026.

Day 54 of Atlantic Hurricane Season

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Welcome to new paid subscribers and supporters. Your trust and support is greatly appreciated. Nearing forecast post 1,000 by early August \u2014 10 more to go!

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NEVER A.I. used in creating these forecast posts \u2014 human-driven by PhD meteorologist, always.

New: Squall Cloud global weather satellite viewer is whipping into shape, and using the maps here in this Newsletter

New: Check out heatdome.earth with a 1940-2026 ranking system + tracking and diagnosis of 500 mb ridges

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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics

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ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | North America

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 12z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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CONUS Satellite View from squall.cloud \u2014> real-time updating link

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Rain and clouds along a stalled frontal boundary along Interstates 20 and 40 including Atlanta, and the Carolinas this afternoon.

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Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 7-days

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Dry as a bone and hot across Texas


Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

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HEAT DOME ALERT

Back above 6000 meters to end July centered on the Four Corners

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Tropical moisture fades away across the Eastern U.S. as much dry air from Canada descends southward. Monsoon moisture continues to creep northward across the U.S. Southwest. Precipitable Water next 48-hours:

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours \u2014> Monday Morning

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Lower 48 turning dryer in the coming days, and weeks ahead with a major heat dome building for the dog days of Summer

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 1:00 PM ET

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Widespread 70s in the 1 PM ET Hour across the Great Lakes, and Northeast

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly | 1:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 was -0.3\u00ad\u00b0F below normal

High Temperatures on Friday

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Lower 48 average high temperature is 89.1\u00b0F with > 110\u00b0F across the U.S. Southeast, and upper-90s in south Georgia and north Florida.

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Low Temperatures Saturday Morning

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Still remarkably cool across the Great Lake and Northeast with 50s and 60s. Nobody can surely be complaining

High Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday

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Lower 48 average high creeps up to 92\u00b0F with 16% of the Lower 48 real estate over 100\u00b0F \u2014> heat dome baking!

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 14-days

Week 1 \u2014> July 24 to July 30

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Week 2 \u2014> July 31 to August 6

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Atlantic Tropics \u2014> dead quiet for next 7-days+

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NASA Dust \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves

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Beautiful imagery off African Coast \u2014> East Tropical Atlantic (squall.cloud)

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More tropical waves lined up over Africa!

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Ensembles Next 15 days \u2014> Complete Ghost Town until Aug 8th

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Eastern Pacific Tropics \u2014 Genevieve will follow Fausto but track more parallel to Mexico coast and off Baja in 7-days

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A monster Central Pacific Hurricane \u2014> Typhoon will form near the Dateline

Fausto doing well \u2014> 90 knots (mid-range Category 2)

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Fausto may hold together to Hawaii as a named system: EPS 00z and Deep Mind 06Z agree on many survivors

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Tropical Depression 07E \u2014> Genevieve in next 12-hours \u2014> maybe a major hurricane by Monday

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Hurricane Genevieve near 963 mb in 4-days \u2014> major hurricane

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Western Pacific \u2014> Typhoon Noul (11W) will head into China in 36-hours

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Plenty more systems lining up as El Ni\u00f1o in the Western Pacific is very busy. Took about 2-weeks to completely recover from Super Typhoon Bavi

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Noul may reach about 85-90 knots \u2014 not quite major typhoon intensity, but outside shot of burst of rapid intensification in next 36-hours

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Precipitable Water from ECMWF 18z also shows development of massive central Pacific Typhoon \u2014 will be long-lasting = lots of ACE

See Global Tropical Cyclones for more ACE information!

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Whoa \u2014 that\u2019s a monster circulation!

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More big storms are in the pipeline \u2014 originating well east in the basin even across the Dateline in the Central Pacific. Next 10-days: Ensemble Tracks (50-members ECMWF EPS 12z) is lit up!

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city and celsius.earth, and soon squall.cloud and weather.football

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Atlantic tropics are very quiet this afternoon \u2014 with great sailing weather from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean and Gulf. Saharan Dust Layers continue to track westward with the trade winds.

Two systems in the Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Fausto on its way to near Hawaii in 5-6 days, and newly formed Tropical Depression Genevieve, which should become (finally) the basin\u2019s first major hurricane in 2026.

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