The track of Bertha will bend to the west into early Wednesday with landfall in Louisiana. The proximity to land + northerly wind shear will limit further intensification and keep impacts to a less degree. The system may keep tropical depression status even over land due to expectation of an “asymmetric” convection shape — blobs of storms will be well offshore.

Please give weather.city a try — more features added today: Severe Weather Alerts archive, and Heating/Cooling Degree Days + climatology — and Energy Weather will be coming up soon, too.

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 7-days

Tuesday Low Temperatures

High Temperatures on Tuesday

Lower 48 average high is 88.6°F and 172 million at least 90°F and 35 million at least 100°F

High Temperatures Next 8-days — until Wed, July 29, 2026

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours —> Friday Evening

My favorite parameter — next 48-hours of RRFS Precipitable Water

RRFS Next 48-hours simulated Radar through Wednesday 2 PM ET

ECMWF HRES 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 14-days

Week 1 —> July 20 to July 26

Week 2 —> July 27 to August 2

Atlantic Tropics —> Tropical Storm Bertha (02L) only show in town

NEW: Atlantic MDR ocean report —summary/briefing from celsius.earth oceans

There are convectively active tropical waves far out in the Eastern MDR of Atlantic over warm enough water at lower-latitude to actually produce a depression, but the organization isn’t there, and the overall environment is hostile with Saharan dry air to the north.

My favorite parameter — Precipitable Water next 6-days

You can see the tropical waves within the ITCZ — monsoon trough — plenty of deep tropical moisture, and even some rotation/circulation apparent. That tropical wave out in the far Eastern Atlantic looks better than Bertha.

NASA Dust — Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves

Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days AIFS-18z shows tropical waves … but nothing else catching fire in the next 10-days

Ensembles Next 15 days —> Ghost Town until Aug 4th (minus Bertha)

Eastern Pacific Tropics

Tropical Storm Fausto soon to become a hurricane — perhaps a major hurricane. Another system follows behind Fausto in the next few days.

Nothing particularly special about Fausto — a typical hurricane (soon) in the Eastern Pacific “hurricane factory” during El Niño.

An inner-core has formed, but still working out some kinks before forming an eye

Fausto will head west toward Hawaii but probably miss the islands to the north over cooler water. Genevieve (07E) will form by this weekend.

Western Pacific has gone quiet but perhaps depression on the other side of the Equator with Invest 98P

Still might be a hangover in the basin from Super Typhoon Bavi but we should see a return to normal operating business next week.