{ "number": 986, "headline": "July 20, 2026 Monday Summer Weather", "standfirst": "Tropical Storm Bertha has formed in the Gulf and will impact the coastline through the weekend with rain and wind.", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-21", "published": "2026-07-21T01:45:52.541000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Tropical Storm Bertha (02L) has formed in the northern Gulf just south of Panama City, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are a minimal 40 mph, and pressure at 1004 mb.

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The track of Bertha will bend to the west into early Wednesday with landfall in Louisiana. The proximity to land + northerly wind shear will limit further intensification and keep impacts to a less degree. The system may keep tropical depression status even over land due to expectation of an \u201casymmetric\u201d convection shape \u2014 blobs of storms will be well offshore.

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This is forecast post number 987: Day 201 of 2026.

Day 50 of Atlantic Hurricane Season \u2014 Bertha is brewing

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Also, I added a beautiful El Ni\u00f1o tracker at celsius.earth that updates daily along with many other details of our Earth\u2019s Oceans. Again, your support here makes these valuable companion sites possible.

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 7-days

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Tuesday Low Temperatures

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High Temperatures on Tuesday

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Lower 48 average high is 88.6\u00b0F and 172 million at least 90\u00b0F and 35 million at least 100\u00b0F


High Temperatures Next 8-days \u2014 until Wed, July 29, 2026

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Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours \u2014> Friday Evening

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My favorite parameter \u2014 next 48-hours of RRFS Precipitable Water

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RRFS Next 48-hours simulated Radar through Wednesday 2 PM ET

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ECMWF HRES 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

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ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 14-days

Week 1 \u2014> July 20 to July 26

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Week 2 \u2014> July 27 to August 2

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Atlantic Tropics \u2014> Tropical Storm Bertha (02L) only show in town

Good consensus from ATCF spaghetti + Deep Mind ensembles that landfall will keep Bertha from intensifying significantly.

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NEW: Atlantic MDR ocean report \u2014summary/briefing from celsius.earth oceans

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There are convectively active tropical waves far out in the Eastern MDR of Atlantic over warm enough water at lower-latitude to actually produce a depression, but the organization isn\u2019t there, and the overall environment is hostile with Saharan dry air to the north.

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My favorite parameter \u2014 Precipitable Water next 6-days

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You can see the tropical waves within the ITCZ \u2014 monsoon trough \u2014 plenty of deep tropical moisture, and even some rotation/circulation apparent. That tropical wave out in the far Eastern Atlantic looks better than Bertha.

NASA Dust \u2014 Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves

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Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days AIFS-18z shows tropical waves \u2026 but nothing else catching fire in the next 10-days

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Ensembles Next 15 days \u2014> Ghost Town until Aug 4th (minus Bertha)

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Eastern Pacific Tropics

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Tropical Storm Fausto soon to become a hurricane \u2014 perhaps a major hurricane. Another system follows behind Fausto in the next few days.

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Nothing particularly special about Fausto \u2014 a typical hurricane (soon) in the Eastern Pacific \u201churricane factory\u201d during El Ni\u00f1o.

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An inner-core has formed, but still working out some kinks before forming an eye

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Fausto will head west toward Hawaii but probably miss the islands to the north over cooler water. Genevieve (07E) will form by this weekend.

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Western Pacific has gone quiet but perhaps depression on the other side of the Equator with Invest 98P

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Still might be a hangover in the basin from Super Typhoon Bavi but we should see a return to normal operating business next week.

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

The track of Bertha will bend to the west into early Wednesday with landfall in Louisiana. The proximity to land + northerly wind shear will limit further intensification and keep impacts to a less degree. The system may keep tropical depression status even over land due to expectation of an \u201casymmetric\u201d convection shape \u2014 blobs of storms will be well offshore.

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