July 19, 2026 Sunday Evening Tropical Depression 02L
The depression remains sprawling and disorganized but should improve on Monday and become Tropical Storm Bertha
July 2026 was the warmest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 76.9°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 74.4°F (+2.5°F).
July 2026 was the 26th-driest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.5in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.9in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Tropical Depression 02L is still expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday afternoon. The generally westerly track could bring Bertha into Texas by Friday, but high uncertainty about the structure of the system later next week. Huge range of outcomes possible.
Update from 5 pm NHC Discussion w/little change in the hours since:
Tropical Depression 02L is expected to only slowly strengthen, especially in the short term, due to its sprawling structure, nearby dry air, and northeasterly vertical wind shear.
02L —> tropical storm on Monday offshore of Florida panhandle
Large spread / uncertainty with intensity from tropical depression to even a hurricane
Low confidence forecast at this juncture until storm become better organized.
TD 02L is disorganized but firing some convection.
You can easily see the mid-level circulation, rather broad, but little organized showers near the center, and pressures remain high around 1008 mb. However, we can expect further consolidation of the convection near the center, and a more typical “tropical storm” look on Monday. There is dry air being entrained into the system from the Southeast U.S. into the Gulf, but that should be shut off soon.
This is forecast post number 986: Day 200 of 2026.
Day 49 of Atlantic Hurricane Season — something is brewing in the Gulf.
Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)
Your continued trust and support is greatly appreciated. Nearing post 1,000!
Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. I’m building many companion sites in addition to weather.city
The ECMWF AIFS 18z — highly skillful model — shows a more south of due westward course, and that’s the significant concern if the system does not interact with the Gulf coast very much. However, even if it makes it to Texas, there’s still a higher likelihood that Bertha will be rather disorganized in a high wind shear environment.
Higher End Solutions on a Southern — Westerly Track! Many hurricane tracks, but currently that is NOT the favored intensity solution by NHC or any of the consensus model aids. If the system remains disorganized and drifts close to the coast, then limited further development is likely.
ECMWF EPS 18z ensembles next 6-days
The environment is hostile with wind shear and proximity to continental dry air — so I am skeptical of Bertha becoming a hurricane. I’d say 1 in 10 chance.
Flagship model: ECMWF 18Z — PWAT my favorite parameter Next 6-days
Tropical waves continue to emerge off Africa and cruise westward under a strong subtropical ridge — to arrive in the Eastern Pacific where conditions are much more favorable for development with Elida, Fausto, and Genevieve in a span of 10-days.
Tropical Depression 02L — intensifies into Tropical Storm Bertha and takes a more westward course toward Texas but is pulled apart as it interacts with a frontal boundary and trough from the north.
Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 7-days
Southwest Monsoon: More rainfall across Arizona and into the Great Basin — always welcome, but we want to avoid lightning as much as possible even w/rain
TD 02L (to become Bertha) in northern Gulf may be a prolific rainmaker for the Florida panhandle and western Gulf coastline even if a tropical system does not form.
A trough in the Northeast —> unsettled weather, and boatloads of rain in the Carolinas especially coastal North Carolina > 6” or more!
Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days
Impressive period of troughing across the Northeast —> cooler than normal, unsettled for second half of July. Bertha is tracking westward until a ridge that is keeping the storm from escape northward.
HRRR 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter
HRRR 18z shows evolution of TD 02L into Bertha over the next 48-hours on a WNW track off south of Pensacola on Tuesday.
Next 15-days — not seeing any (smoke) signals through end of July outside of the Gulf (Tropical Depression 02L)
Eastern Pacific Tropics | Formation of Tropical Storm Fausto (06E)
Tropical Storm Elida (05E) continues on a northward track. Tropical Storm Fausto will become Hurricane Fausto.
Parade of systems lined up … now Fausto named, and another tropical wave on the way into the EPAC hurricane factory (very warm water)
Elida will become post tropical by Monday … and keep heading north with some gusty winds.
Fausto follows Elida, but takes a westerly course for the next 5-7 days, and then Genevieve forms down the road.
Tropical Storm Fausto tracking WNW through next 5-days remaining a powerful hurricane into late coming week.
Heading in the general direction of Hawaii … we’ll see if it can get close to the Big Island as the SSTs are quite warm to keep Fausto alive. NHC has a maximum intensity in the 24-hour forecast points of 95 knots, on the precipice of Category 3 (major)
Fausto should become a Major Hurricane.
Adding “oceans” to celsius.earth —> data upload (44 years of daily 0.05° Met Office OSTIA gridded SST) + climatology … almost complete
Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.
Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com and weather.city
My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Weather Trader Roadmap
Where is this “Weather Trader” newsletter headed? No where, and this Substack hosted blog will continue onward. I will have more time/opportunity to expand into other topics, too, once I can pre-wire all of the maps/content that is currently download, and cut-and-paste. There will be companion sites, and services that will allow (paid) subscribers to interrogate the models, get their own customized point forecasts and/or regional views, including maps and charts. The development is extremely rapid with Claude Code (not joking), and your continued support is appreciated but also necessary. What has been shipped in the past week? Freely available services: hottestsince.com / coldestsince.com / wettestsince.com / driestsince.com / weather.city, and precipitation.earth is being built with celsius.earth after that. I currently have a list of 20 high-priority additional sites/services.
How am I able to build these so quickly? Well, I have all of the data already, and I knew how to stage it for turn-key wiring into the web interfaces. I already did the hard part of ingesting and processing the weather data, so passing off the web design to Claude eliminates much of the ridiculously time intensive work. I’ve literally done at least 20,000 man hours (10-years) of full time web design required in 2025. No longer.
So, what’s the play here? I am going to produce everything as if I am a power-user, from my professional level of experience and expertise. I want all of you to be able to see under the hood with how the weather enterprise works today, and give as much away for free (non-commercial) but maintain a “value-added” structure for subscribers. I am making shareable cards, interactive tools, and broadcast quality maps. And, I already have the ability to ship individualized PDFs through weathertrader.com And, that’s the crown jewel — the weather trading market interface (but not for money, and humans aren’t involved. In the coming weeks/months, you’re going to see some incredible things!
- Milepost
- 985 · laid 2026-07-20T02:02:34.532000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/july-19-2026-sunday-evening-tropical
- Digest
- 0312850d3eaae6378588aeaef4e422dde3e922cd558bad3a8f933dad56393212
- Machine
- JSON