{ "number": 985, "headline": "July 19, 2026 Sunday Evening Tropical Depression 02L", "standfirst": "The depression remains sprawling and disorganized but should improve on Monday and become Tropical Storm Bertha", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-20", "published": "2026-07-20T02:02:34.532000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Tropical Depression 02L is still expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday afternoon. The generally westerly track could bring Bertha into Texas by Friday, but high uncertainty about the structure of the system later next week. Huge range of outcomes possible.

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Update from 5 pm NHC Discussion w/little change in the hours since:

TD 02L is disorganized but firing some convection.

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You can easily see the mid-level circulation, rather broad, but little organized showers near the center, and pressures remain high around 1008 mb. However, we can expect further consolidation of the convection near the center, and a more typical \u201ctropical storm\u201d look on Monday. There is dry air being entrained into the system from the Southeast U.S. into the Gulf, but that should be shut off soon.

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This is forecast post number 986: Day 200 of 2026.

Day 49 of Atlantic Hurricane Season \u2014 something is brewing in the Gulf.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Your continued trust and support is greatly appreciated. Nearing post 1,000!

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. I\u2019m building many companion sites in addition to weather.city

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The ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014 highly skillful model \u2014 shows a more south of due westward course, and that\u2019s the significant concern if the system does not interact with the Gulf coast very much. However, even if it makes it to Texas, there\u2019s still a higher likelihood that Bertha will be rather disorganized in a high wind shear environment.

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Higher End Solutions on a Southern \u2014 Westerly Track! Many hurricane tracks, but currently that is NOT the favored intensity solution by NHC or any of the consensus model aids. If the system remains disorganized and drifts close to the coast, then limited further development is likely.

ECMWF EPS 18z ensembles next 6-days

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The environment is hostile with wind shear and proximity to continental dry air \u2014 so I am skeptical of Bertha becoming a hurricane. I\u2019d say 1 in 10 chance.

Flagship model: ECMWF 18Z \u2014 PWAT my favorite parameter Next 6-days

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Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 7-days

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Southwest Monsoon: More rainfall across Arizona and into the Great Basin \u2014 always welcome, but we want to avoid lightning as much as possible even w/rain

TD 02L (to become Bertha) in northern Gulf may be a prolific rainmaker for the Florida panhandle and western Gulf coastline even if a tropical system does not form.

A trough in the Northeast \u2014> unsettled weather, and boatloads of rain in the Carolinas especially coastal North Carolina > 6\u201d or more!

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

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Impressive period of troughing across the Northeast \u2014> cooler than normal, unsettled for second half of July. Bertha is tracking westward until a ridge that is keeping the storm from escape northward.

HRRR 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

HRRR 18z shows evolution of TD 02L into Bertha over the next 48-hours on a WNW track off south of Pensacola on Tuesday.

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Next 15-days \u2014 not seeing any (smoke) signals through end of July outside of the Gulf (Tropical Depression 02L)

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Eastern Pacific Tropics | Formation of Tropical Storm Fausto (06E)

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Tropical Storm Elida (05E) continues on a northward track. Tropical Storm Fausto will become Hurricane Fausto.

Parade of systems lined up \u2026 now Fausto named, and another tropical wave on the way into the EPAC hurricane factory (very warm water)

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Tropical Storm Fausto tracking WNW through next 5-days remaining a powerful hurricane into late coming week.

Heading in the general direction of Hawaii \u2026 we\u2019ll see if it can get close to the Big Island as the SSTs are quite warm to keep Fausto alive. NHC has a maximum intensity in the 24-hour forecast points of 95 knots, on the precipice of Category 3 (major)

Fausto should become a Major Hurricane.

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Adding \u201coceans\u201d to celsius.earth \u2014> data upload (44 years of daily 0.05\u00b0 Met Office OSTIA gridded SST) + climatology \u2026 almost complete

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

Weather Trader Roadmap

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Where is this \u201cWeather Trader\u201d newsletter headed? No where, and this Substack hosted blog will continue onward. I will have more time/opportunity to expand into other topics, too, once I can pre-wire all of the maps/content that is currently download, and cut-and-paste. There will be companion sites, and services that will allow (paid) subscribers to interrogate the models, get their own customized point forecasts and/or regional views, including maps and charts. The development is extremely rapid with Claude Code (not joking), and your continued support is appreciated but also necessary. What has been shipped in the past week? Freely available services: hottestsince.com / coldestsince.com / wettestsince.com / driestsince.com / weather.city, and precipitation.earth is being built with celsius.earth after that. I currently have a list of 20 high-priority additional sites/services.

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So, what\u2019s the play here? I am going to produce everything as if I am a power-user, from my professional level of experience and expertise. I want all of you to be able to see under the hood with how the weather enterprise works today, and give as much away for free (non-commercial) but maintain a \u201cvalue-added\u201d structure for subscribers. I am making shareable cards, interactive tools, and broadcast quality maps. And, I already have the ability to ship individualized PDFs through weathertrader.com And, that\u2019s the crown jewel \u2014 the weather trading market interface (but not for money, and humans aren\u2019t involved. In the coming weeks/months, you\u2019re going to see some incredible things!

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Tropical Depression 02L is still expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday afternoon. The generally westerly track could bring Bertha into Texas by Friday, but high uncertainty about the structure of the system later next week. Huge range of outcomes possible.

Update from 5 pm NHC Discussion w/little change in the hours since:

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