Announcing our weather.city

For 20-years, I’ve dreamed of my own weather website the way that I wanted it. I’ve been sitting on this domain for 10+ years waiting for an opportunity to develop weather.city [weather dot city] and now it’s entirely feasible, and a lot of fun creating exactly the look and feel of a weather forecasting website.

Please click around. I’ll be adding more features including satellite, radar, models, and other useful tools, but I’m very picky with the details and design. Again, without your support over the past 2-years, this could not have happened. Substack + Weather Trader subscribers have sustained my development and kept me motivated to finally launch everything. This makes n=6 websites that will work together with Weather Trader providing the data store and forecasting engine to run everything. Then comes Weather Hedger, not joking.

Main question is what does your paid subscription here get you in addition to access to this Newsletter via email from the Substack App? Well, this is obviously not the platform to share data or host a full-service weather data platform. However, I do have your email address, and the capability to extend subscription level services on the full Weather Trader / weather.city / everywhere else assuming that’s in your interest. I do not want the garish / ugly advertising that assaults users of the main weather websites. Sponsorships might be a nice idea, especially for state, urban, local or event “points of interest” forecast pages. I want to keep “everything under the sun” freely available for non-commercial usage.

There really hasn’t been a high quality and newly designed weather website in a decade, and the other options are not modernized, and are impossible to navigate. They are ad heavy, location and personal details tracking, cybersecurity nightmares.

I think you can see where I’m going. Weather forecasts are a commodity, and the vast majority of users just click on their phone app, and really don’t pay much attention to the underlying science or the beautiful details inherent within the intersection of weather and geography. I think the U.S. Interstate system connects them both, and the signage and colors are iconic.

Hopefully, this Substack Website will transition to the look and feel of the weather.city / Weather Trader constellation of websites including the maps. The full ECMWF feed (real-time) data will cost $40k/year, and that’s a steep hill to climb at this time. However, I do like my color tables, so don’t expect much change.

There are major startup costs involved that could balloon quickly [servers] so I do need your continued support to make this happen. Current subscribers can add gift subscriptions at 50% off, or upgrade to the Founder’s Level —> This is a small but growing group that has trusted me to provide them the best possible and profitable information, and they will be granted nameplate status within weather.city. You’d obviously have open-door access to my consulting services.

And, I need to develop the mobile app for weather.city — normally a task that would take 3-6 months and require a team of coders. Not anymore. As someone with the in domain knowledge (PhD 16-years ago) and 13-years of private sector experience plus everything I know about weather models, giving me access to Claude Code (or the other ones) almost is unfair to anyone that isn’t familiar or comfortable at the command line prompt of a server shell.

I’m very excited for what’s coming. This is what I’ve been waiting for 15-years now: Finally charting my own course.

Impressive Southwestern Monsoon thundershowers especially across Arizona

The main flow is from the east underneath the powerful “heat dome” completely clearing out the center of the Lower 48 into Canada.

Records Threatened on Monday — concentrated in the upper-Midwest

Hottest temperature for the next 7-days from the NDFD NWS forecast —> see more at Hottest Since — one of our companion sites

International Falls —> 100°F forecast on Monday

Back to more familiar maps — Monday Low Temperatures

High Temperatures on Monday

Heat dome pattern — hottest across the Southwest, California, into the Great Basin, and then northern Rockies —> Midwest & Great Lakes with 90s and 100s

Lower 48 average high is 89.2°F

Tuesday High Temperatures

Very hot in Michigan into Canada including Toronto and Montreal

Into the mid-90s in NYC … low-100s in Michigan. Yikes!

Into Summer —> Height Anomalies don’t tell entire story … actual height does!

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 12-days

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours —> Wednesday Evening

My favorite parameter — next 48-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water

Plenty of moisture continuing to circulate and bubble up with the summer-time air mass across the Eastern U.S. to fire daytime thunderstorms with heavy downpours.

Southwest monsoon with high-PWAT air coming out of the Pacific

HRRR Next 48-hours simulated Radar through Friday 2 PM ET

Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 10-days

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days

ECMWF HRES 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

PWAT variable shows the formation of a stationary frontal boundary with heavy moisture content across the Gulf coast from Texas into Florida — and that will be the focus for continued clouds and heavy rain keeping temperatures mild.

Temperature Analysis | RTMA | 9:45 PM ET

Still in the 100-110°F across Wyoming and Montana. Unbelievable heat dome

Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 9:45 PM ET

Lower 48 was normal 0.0°F — the heat dome is creating wet/cloudy conditions on the underside and canceling out the temperature

High Temperatures Next 8-days — until Tuesday, July 21st

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

Mixed temperature signals into week 2 after the heat dome breaks down.

Week 1 —> July 12 to July 18

Week 2 —> July 19 to July 25

Atlantic Tropics

Full physics ensembles (12z) show a small signal in the northern Gulf of Mexico, but it’s likely to come alive with the AIFS catching onto the signal.

More — a lot more members with the AIFS-ENS at 18z with “Bertha”

NASA GEOS-5 Dust Forecast Next 10-days

Like a dragon breathing fire off the African continent across the Atlantic — the entire basin along 15°N to 25°N will be very dusty and under control of Saharan Air Layer origin air mass.

Eastern Pacific Tropics

1 Moderate + 1 High Chance of development … other lemon drops are too weak, but they could spin up at any time … busy ITCZ/monsoon trough out in the EPAC!