{ "number": 978, "headline": "July 12, 2026 Sunday Summer Weather", "standfirst": "Yet another major heat dome for the northern tier including the Great Lakes with 100\u00b0F and many records to fall", "desk": "record", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-13", "published": "2026-07-13T02:36:25.404000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

Announcing our weather.city

For 20-years, I\u2019ve dreamed of my own weather website the way that I wanted it. I\u2019ve been sitting on this domain for 10+ years waiting for an opportunity to develop weather.city [weather dot city] and now it\u2019s entirely feasible, and a lot of fun creating exactly the look and feel of a weather forecasting website.

Please click around. I\u2019ll be adding more features including satellite, radar, models, and other useful tools, but I\u2019m very picky with the details and design. Again, without your support over the past 2-years, this could not have happened. Substack + Weather Trader subscribers have sustained my development and kept me motivated to finally launch everything. This makes n=6 websites that will work together with Weather Trader providing the data store and forecasting engine to run everything. Then comes Weather Hedger, not joking.

Main question is what does your paid subscription here get you in addition to access to this Newsletter via email from the Substack App? Well, this is obviously not the platform to share data or host a full-service weather data platform. However, I do have your email address, and the capability to extend subscription level services on the full Weather Trader / weather.city / everywhere else assuming that\u2019s in your interest. I do not want the garish / ugly advertising that assaults users of the main weather websites. Sponsorships might be a nice idea, especially for state, urban, local or event \u201cpoints of interest\u201d forecast pages. I want to keep \u201ceverything under the sun\u201d freely available for non-commercial usage.

There really hasn\u2019t been a high quality and newly designed weather website in a decade, and the other options are not modernized, and are impossible to navigate. They are ad heavy, location and personal details tracking, cybersecurity nightmares.

I think you can see where I\u2019m going. Weather forecasts are a commodity, and the vast majority of users just click on their phone app, and really don\u2019t pay much attention to the underlying science or the beautiful details inherent within the intersection of weather and geography. I think the U.S. Interstate system connects them both, and the signage and colors are iconic.

Hopefully, this Substack Website will transition to the look and feel of the weather.city / Weather Trader constellation of websites including the maps. The full ECMWF feed (real-time) data will cost $40k/year, and that\u2019s a steep hill to climb at this time. However, I do like my color tables, so don\u2019t expect much change.

There are major startup costs involved that could balloon quickly [servers] so I do need your continued support to make this happen. Current subscribers can add gift subscriptions at 50% off, or upgrade to the Founder\u2019s Level \u2014> This is a small but growing group that has trusted me to provide them the best possible and profitable information, and they will be granted nameplate status within weather.city. You\u2019d obviously have open-door access to my consulting services.

Give a gift subscription

And, I need to develop the mobile app for weather.city \u2014 normally a task that would take 3-6 months and require a team of coders. Not anymore. As someone with the in domain knowledge (PhD 16-years ago) and 13-years of private sector experience plus everything I know about weather models, giving me access to Claude Code (or the other ones) almost is unfair to anyone that isn\u2019t familiar or comfortable at the command line prompt of a server shell.

I\u2019m very excited for what\u2019s coming. This is what I\u2019ve been waiting for 15-years now: Finally charting my own course.

This is forecast post number 979: Day 194 of 2026.

Day 42 of Atlantic Hurricane Season \u2014 something is brewing

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Help support this newsletter (nearing post 1,000!) \u2014 Become a paying subscriber. Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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Impressive Southwestern Monsoon thundershowers especially across Arizona

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The main flow is from the east underneath the powerful \u201cheat dome\u201d completely clearing out the center of the Lower 48 into Canada.

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Records Threatened on Monday \u2014 concentrated in the upper-Midwest

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Hottest temperature for the next 7-days from the NDFD NWS forecast \u2014> see more at Hottest Since \u2014 one of our companion sites

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International Falls \u2014> 100\u00b0F forecast on Monday

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Back to more familiar maps \u2014 Monday Low Temperatures

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High Temperatures on Monday

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Heat dome pattern \u2014 hottest across the Southwest, California, into the Great Basin, and then northern Rockies \u2014> Midwest & Great Lakes with 90s and 100s

Lower 48 average high is 89.2\u00b0F

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Tuesday High Temperatures

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Very hot in Michigan into Canada including Toronto and Montreal

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Into the mid-90s in NYC \u2026 low-100s in Michigan. Yikes!

Into Summer \u2014> Height Anomalies don\u2019t tell entire story \u2026 actual height does!

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ECMWF 18z next 4-days \u2014> maximum 6012 meter heat dome \u2026 a trough over the Northeast erodes the \u201cheat dome\u201d by end of the week, and that is key to a potential tropical storm development in the Gulf of Mexico down the road.

Normally when you\u2019d see 600 dm, it\u2019d be a major panic for potential record high temperatures everywhere with the entire Lower 48 broiling off the face of the Earth. However, the worst / most anomalous heat is on northern periphery while clouds and rain with tropical moisture is on the underside!

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 12-days

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The impressive central U.S. ridge + a series of digging troughs out of the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest.

Also, note the troughs digging into the Northeast into Days 7-10 \u2014> back to the cooler/unsettled pattern for mid-July.

Cut-off low formation in the Gulf of Mexico \u2014> Bertha?

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours \u2014> Wednesday Evening

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My favorite parameter \u2014 next 48-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water

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Plenty of moisture continuing to circulate and bubble up with the summer-time air mass across the Eastern U.S. to fire daytime thunderstorms with heavy downpours.

Southwest monsoon with high-PWAT air coming out of the Pacific

HRRR Next 48-hours simulated Radar through Friday 2 PM ET

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Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 10-days

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 12-days

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ECMWF HRES 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

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PWAT variable shows the formation of a stationary frontal boundary with heavy moisture content across the Gulf coast from Texas into Florida \u2014 and that will be the focus for continued clouds and heavy rain keeping temperatures mild.

Temperature Analysis | RTMA | 9:45 PM ET

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Still in the 100-110\u00b0F across Wyoming and Montana. Unbelievable heat dome

Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 9:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 was normal 0.0\u00b0F \u2014 the heat dome is creating wet/cloudy conditions on the underside and canceling out the temperature

High Temperatures Next 8-days \u2014 until Tuesday, July 21st

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ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

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Mixed temperature signals into week 2 after the heat dome breaks down.

Week 1 \u2014> July 12 to July 18

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Week 2 \u2014> July 19 to July 25

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Atlantic Tropics

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Full physics ensembles (12z) show a small signal in the northern Gulf of Mexico, but it\u2019s likely to come alive with the AIFS catching onto the signal.

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More \u2014 a lot more members with the AIFS-ENS at 18z with \u201cBertha\u201d

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Still a few days before we can be sure about the formation of Bertha near the U.S. coastline \u2014 so we\u2019ll keep watching, not much other choice!

NASA GEOS-5 Dust Forecast Next 10-days

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Like a dragon breathing fire off the African continent across the Atlantic \u2014 the entire basin along 15\u00b0N to 25\u00b0N will be very dusty and under control of Saharan Air Layer origin air mass.

Eastern Pacific Tropics

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1 Moderate + 1 High Chance of development \u2026 other lemon drops are too weak, but they could spin up at any time \u2026 busy ITCZ/monsoon trough out in the EPAC!

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

Our own content is now sourced from hottestsince.com

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

For 20-years, I\u2019ve dreamed of my own weather website the way that I wanted it. I\u2019ve been sitting on this domain for 10+ years waiting for an opportunity to develop weather.city [weather dot city] and now it\u2019s entirely feasible, and a lot of fun creating exactly the look and feel of a weather forecasting website.

Please click around. I\u2019ll be adding more features including satellite, radar, models, and other useful tools, but I\u2019m very picky with the details and design. Again, without your support over the past 2-years, this could not have happened. Substack + Weather Trader subscribers have sustained my development and kept me motivated to finally launch everything. This makes n=6 websites that will work together with Weather Trader providing the data store and forecasting engine to run everything. Then comes Weather Hedger, not joking.

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