July 6, 2026 Monday Summer Weather
Typical summer weather for the next week with a heat dome forming, but not expecting major impacts to Eastern USA
July 2026 was the warmest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 76.9°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 74.4°F (+2.5°F).
July 2026 was the 26th-driest July in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.5in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.9in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Summer time convection within the circulation of a still strong ridge of high pressure off the U.S. East Coast
Very welcome rain for the Florida peninsula. However, earlier very excessive/flooding rains for New Jersey that collapsed a B.J. Wholesale Club roof. Heading into mid-July, we typically see transient patterns in the upper-levels associated with ridges and troughs that are slower moving (less progressive).
And, a slow moving ridge can mean rapid “heat dome” development. But, depending upon the origin and dominant flow pattern, we can see record geopotential height at 500 mb but limited “heating” impacts.
And, that’s the story for the next week: a heat dome forms out of the Rockies and intensifies into the Midwest and Great Lakes. However, the circulation around it will mean moisture and easterly flow across the Gulf Coast into Texas —> cloudy and wet.
The hottest and driest conditions will be in Montana and the Dakotas into next week.
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6000 meter Heights at 500 mb — maybe 6010 m centered on Minneapolis in 7-days (Monday evening)
Normally when you’d see 600 dm, it’d be a major panic for potential record high temperatures. But in Mid-July, it’s normally quite hot, and setting any records is difficult with 150-years of American weather history books full of seemingly unbreakable temperature records.
Temperature Anomaly Monday Evening — next week
Yes, well above normal 10° to 20°F in an arc on the top side of the heat dome from Denver into the Dakotas and across to the Great Lakes.
But also plenty of blue on the return easterly flow from the Southeast into Texas and the Southwest U.S. with clouds and storms.
Blend of Models — Ensemble Mean High Temperatures for Monday July 13
The Lower 48 is almost 91°F but quite manageable 164 million population at least 90°F but only 20 million at least 100°F
This won’t be remotely on same level of the extreme heat we just experienced across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for the past week.
Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days
The impressive central U.S. ridge forms this weekend downstream of a series of digging troughs out of the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest.
The origin of the 500 mb high is probably best described as the subtropical eastern Pacific and across the U.S. Southwest.
Into Summer —> Height Anomalies don’t tell entire story … actual height does!
The ridge at 594 dm pushes out of the U.S. Southwest into the northern Plains and then Great Lakes reaching 610 dm in 7-days, but is squished / flattened by lower heights from Canada.
This gets us into middle July.
NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours —> Saturday Afternoon
Slow moving area of low pressure lingering off the New England coast with still heavy rain — much better than 100°F with an oppressive heat dome.
My favorite parameter — next 48-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water
Plenty of moisture continuing to circulate and bubble up with the summer-time air mass across the Eastern U.S. to fire daytime thunderstorms with heavy downpours.
Weather Into Tuesday Morning
HRRR Next 48-hours simulated Radar through Wednesday 2 PM ET
Scattered monsoon showers and storms across the Rockies — nice to see.
Widely scattered daytime pop-up storms across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic with a decreasing or drying trend.
Weather on Tuesday
Blend of Models —> Precipitation Next 7-days
ECMWF EPS Median Ensemble Precipitation Next 15-days
Observed Rainfall over the Past 7-days from June 29 - July 6th 8 AM
Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 12z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days
The heat dome across the Great Lakes shows up as a clockwise closed circulation within the moisture parameter (IVT)
The Gulf of Mexico is largely shut off from deep fetch southerly flow into the Lower 48 through Texas and the Deep South.
Instead, there is a bit of a trough bent across North Florida and the Southeast Atlantic underneath the strong ridge.
ECMWF HRES 12z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter
PWAT variable shows the formation of a stationary frontal boundary with heavy moisture content across the Gulf coast from Texas into Florida — and that will be the focus for continued clouds and heavy rain keeping temperatures mild.
Temperature Analysis | RTMA | 5:45 PM ET
About 86 million population at least 90°F at 5:45 PM ET
Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 5:45 PM ET
Lower 48 was 1.4°F above normal
High Temperatures Next 8-days — until Wednesday July 15th
Settling into typical mid-July dog-days of summer heat — but entirely manageable with mainly 80s in the Great Lakes and Northeast instead of 90s and 100s.
Low Temperatures on Tuesday
Mainly 60s and lower 70s across the board with some cooler 50s in the Great Lakes and New England.
High Temperatures on Tuesday
138 Million at least 90°F & only 12 million at least 100°F
High Temperatures on Wednesday
Almost 69 million at least 100°F
ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days
Mixed temperature signals into week 2 after the heat dome breaks down.
Week 1 —> July 6 to July 12
Week 2 —> July 13 to July 19
Atlantic Tropics — Ghost Town into mid-July, at least
Atlantic Basin — (15-day tracks forecast from EPS 12z)
Satellite does show some convective clusters, but the environment is highly unfavorable with wind shear and suffocating Saharan Air Layer + dust
NASA GEOS-5 Dust Forecast Next 10-days
Like a dragon breathing fire off the African continent across the Atlantic — the entire basin along 15°N to 25°N will be very dusty and under control of Saharan Air Layer origin air mass.
Super Typhoon Bavi (140-150 knots) at Category 5 passed over Rota
Intensity will vary as Bavi undergoes eyewall replacement cycles. Without doubt, however, Bavi will get even bigger with a massive wind field while maintaining Category 5 and near 900 mb central pressure.
Google Deep Mind ensemble Tracks
4-5 days — potential impacts to northeast Taiwan and mainland China.
Massive Super Typhoon Bavi from HAFS-A (850-hPa Winds) next 5-days
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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
- Milepost
- 974 · laid 2026-07-06T23:29:22.693000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/july-6-2026-monday-summer-weather
- Digest
- b6f7ed3f39e06bae62fd1f151161f0c5affa06616ad7eb4c94e35357adfee31b
- Machine
- JSON