{ "number": 974, "headline": "July 6, 2026 Monday Summer Weather", "standfirst": "Typical summer weather for the next week with a heat dome forming, but not expecting major impacts to Eastern USA", "desk": "record", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-06", "published": "2026-07-06T23:29:22.693000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

Summer time convection within the circulation of a still strong ridge of high pressure off the U.S. East Coast

\"\"

Very welcome rain for the Florida peninsula. However, earlier very excessive/flooding rains for New Jersey that collapsed a B.J. Wholesale Club roof. Heading into mid-July, we typically see transient patterns in the upper-levels associated with ridges and troughs that are slower moving (less progressive).

And, a slow moving ridge can mean rapid \u201cheat dome\u201d development. But, depending upon the origin and dominant flow pattern, we can see record geopotential height at 500 mb but limited \u201cheating\u201d impacts.

And, that\u2019s the story for the next week: a heat dome forms out of the Rockies and intensifies into the Midwest and Great Lakes. However, the circulation around it will mean moisture and easterly flow across the Gulf Coast into Texas \u2014> cloudy and wet.

The hottest and driest conditions will be in Montana and the Dakotas into next week.

This is forecast post number 974: Day 187 of 2026.

Day 36 of Atlantic Hurricane Season \u2014 very quiet with building El Ni\u00f1o. The Western Pacific basin

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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6000 meter Heights at 500 mb \u2014 maybe 6010 m centered on Minneapolis in 7-days (Monday evening)

Normally when you\u2019d see 600 dm, it\u2019d be a major panic for potential record high temperatures. But in Mid-July, it\u2019s normally quite hot, and setting any records is difficult with 150-years of American weather history books full of seemingly unbreakable temperature records.

\"\"

Temperature Anomaly Monday Evening \u2014 next week

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Yes, well above normal 10\u00b0 to 20\u00b0F in an arc on the top side of the heat dome from Denver into the Dakotas and across to the Great Lakes.

But also plenty of blue on the return easterly flow from the Southeast into Texas and the Southwest U.S. with clouds and storms.

Blend of Models \u2014 Ensemble Mean High Temperatures for Monday July 13

\"\"

The Lower 48 is almost 91\u00b0F but quite manageable 164 million population at least 90\u00b0F but only 20 million at least 100\u00b0F

This won\u2019t be remotely on same level of the extreme heat we just experienced across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for the past week.

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

\"\"

The impressive central U.S. ridge forms this weekend downstream of a series of digging troughs out of the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest.

The origin of the 500 mb high is probably best described as the subtropical eastern Pacific and across the U.S. Southwest.

Into Summer \u2014> Height Anomalies don\u2019t tell entire story \u2026 actual height does!

\"\"

The ridge at 594 dm pushes out of the U.S. Southwest into the northern Plains and then Great Lakes reaching 610 dm in 7-days, but is squished / flattened by lower heights from Canada.

This gets us into middle July.

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours \u2014> Saturday Afternoon

\"\"

Slow moving area of low pressure lingering off the New England coast with still heavy rain \u2014 much better than 100\u00b0F with an oppressive heat dome.

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My favorite parameter \u2014 next 48-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water

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Plenty of moisture continuing to circulate and bubble up with the summer-time air mass across the Eastern U.S. to fire daytime thunderstorms with heavy downpours.

Weather Into Tuesday Morning

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HRRR Next 48-hours simulated Radar through Wednesday 2 PM ET

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Scattered monsoon showers and storms across the Rockies \u2014 nice to see.

Widely scattered daytime pop-up storms across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic with a decreasing or drying trend.

Weather on Tuesday

\"\"

Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 7-days

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ECMWF EPS Median Ensemble Precipitation Next 15-days

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Observed Rainfall over the Past 7-days from June 29 - July 6th 8 AM

\"\"

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 12z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

\"\"

The heat dome across the Great Lakes shows up as a clockwise closed circulation within the moisture parameter (IVT)

The Gulf of Mexico is largely shut off from deep fetch southerly flow into the Lower 48 through Texas and the Deep South.

Instead, there is a bit of a trough bent across North Florida and the Southeast Atlantic underneath the strong ridge.

ECMWF HRES 12z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

\"\"

PWAT variable shows the formation of a stationary frontal boundary with heavy moisture content across the Gulf coast from Texas into Florida \u2014 and that will be the focus for continued clouds and heavy rain keeping temperatures mild.

Temperature Analysis | RTMA | 5:45 PM ET

\"\"

About 86 million population at least 90\u00b0F at 5:45 PM ET

Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 5:45 PM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 was 1.4\u00b0F above normal

High Temperatures Next 8-days \u2014 until Wednesday July 15th

\"\"

Settling into typical mid-July dog-days of summer heat \u2014 but entirely manageable with mainly 80s in the Great Lakes and Northeast instead of 90s and 100s.

Low Temperatures on Tuesday

\"\"

Mainly 60s and lower 70s across the board with some cooler 50s in the Great Lakes and New England.

\"\"
\"\"

High Temperatures on Tuesday

\"\"

138 Million at least 90\u00b0F & only 12 million at least 100\u00b0F

High Temperatures on Wednesday

\"\"

Almost 69 million at least 100\u00b0F

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

\"\"

Mixed temperature signals into week 2 after the heat dome breaks down.

Week 1 \u2014> July 6 to July 12

\"\"

Week 2 \u2014> July 13 to July 19

\"\"

Atlantic Tropics \u2014 Ghost Town into mid-July, at least

\"\"

Atlantic Basin \u2014 (15-day tracks forecast from EPS 12z)

\"\"

Satellite does show some convective clusters, but the environment is highly unfavorable with wind shear and suffocating Saharan Air Layer + dust

\"\"

NASA GEOS-5 Dust Forecast Next 10-days

\"\"

Like a dragon breathing fire off the African continent across the Atlantic \u2014 the entire basin along 15\u00b0N to 25\u00b0N will be very dusty and under control of Saharan Air Layer origin air mass.

Super Typhoon Bavi (140-150 knots) at Category 5 passed over Rota

\"\"

Intensity will vary as Bavi undergoes eyewall replacement cycles. Without doubt, however, Bavi will get even bigger with a massive wind field while maintaining Category 5 and near 900 mb central pressure.

Google Deep Mind ensemble Tracks

\"\"

4-5 days \u2014 potential impacts to northeast Taiwan and mainland China.

\"\"

Massive Super Typhoon Bavi from HAFS-A (850-hPa Winds) next 5-days

\"\"

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Very welcome rain for the Florida peninsula. However, earlier very excessive/flooding rains for New Jersey that collapsed a B.J. Wholesale Club roof. Heading into mid-July, we typically see transient patterns in the upper-levels associated with ridges and troughs that are slower moving (less progressive).

And, a slow moving ridge can mean rapid \u201cheat dome\u201d development. But, depending upon the origin and dominant flow pattern, we can see record geopotential height at 500 mb but limited \u201cheating\u201d impacts.

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