{ "number": 971, "headline": "June 30, 2026 Tropical Update Tuesday", "standfirst": "Atlantic remains quiet into first week of July while a massive Super Typhoon develops in Western Pacific", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-07-01", "published": "2026-07-01T01:44:50.894000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

Top Story this week in the Global Tropics will be a massive Super Typhoon developing out of the far SE corner of the basin, crossing through the Marianna Islands, and reaching near Taiwan in 10-days. Intensity forecasts show potential for sub-900 mb pressure \u2014> Category 5+

\"\"

Another weaker Tropical Storm in the South China Sea will quickly develop (Invest 96W) so the next two names Bavi and Maysak are up for grabs.

\"\"

The Super Typhoon has plenty of very warm ocean water (SST > 29\u00b0C) but also very deep warm pool. Global Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential:

\"\"

Zoom into the Atlantic basin: plenty of tropical cyclone fuel in the Caribbean and even the Gulf heading into July, already. But the Western Pacific warm pool is like a deep bath tub of very warm water compared to the Atlantic, which is still chilly (little fuel) ENE of the Lesser Antilles.

\"\"

This is newsletter post number 971: Day 181 of 2026. Day 30 of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Good evening!

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Help support this newsletter (nearing post 1,000!)

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. ALL CONTENT is original (human \u2014 Ryan) and not A.I. although you can chip in a Starbucks each month for more Claude Max (tokens!)

To Receive Published Posts Via Email and Substack App

The Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly across the tropical central and eastern Pacific is full tilt El Ni\u00f1o. Also note a \u201cwarm blob\u201d in the North Pacific, and a \u201ccold blob\u201d in the North Atlantic. These are created by the accumulation of storms and high-pressure cells \u2014 strong / weak winds working on the ocean surface through waves + mixing.

\"\"

Headline Tropical Cyclone Tracks \u2014 for the next 15-days from ECMWF EPS 12z

\"\"

Ghost town in the Atlantic \u2014 NHC ditched the 10% area of interest off the Southeast Coast

Help support this newsletter (nearing post 1,000 in 4-weeks)

Subscribe now

Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

\"\"

HUGE heat dome forms over the Eastern U.S. with a clockwise anti-cyclone in the IVT field \u2014 very strong deep layer ridge, breaks down after 5-6 days.

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

\"\"

Fairly decent tropical PWATs in the central Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic, but nothing developing into early July. Another major Saharan Air Layer scours the MDR clear again \u2014 you can see the PWAT front (dry) blasting into the Lesser Antilles this weekend.

Atlantic Basin \u2014 Quiet for next 7-days (or much, much longer)

\"\"

Tropical Waves \u2026 multiple across the 2 basins but nothing convectively active in the Atlantic. 90% chance that Invest 95E becomes a TD or TS in next 2-days.

\"\"
\"\"

Sea Surface Temperatures still below 26\u00b0F reaching well into the MDR (green coloring)

Warmer than normal in the subtropics due to persistent weak winds and a strong subtropical high pressure (Bermuda high \u2014> Azores high)

But still cooler than typical for end of June in the MDR

\"\"

Early today GeoColor satellite imagery animation

A large plume of Saharan dust pushing through the Caribbean with the characteristic milky hue. The clouds within the SAL are typically puffy cumulus but it is difficult to even produce a shower.

Tropical Waves across Africa are not particularly robust

The Atlantic tropical basin is very quiet into early July, and that\u2019s not surprising in any given year. However, with (Super) El Ni\u00f1o intensifying across the Tropical Pacific, there\u2019s little expectation that tropical storm activity will pick up anytime soon. However, the basin\u2019s overall \u201chealth\u201d or favorability will improve through July into August as the ocean temperatures warm significantly and the impacts of Saharan Air Layers (SAL) and dust subside. Tropical waves will have a better opportunity to maintain low-level circulation as they emerge from the African coast into the \u201cMain Development Region\u201d (MDR) of Atlantic basin.

Saharan Air Layer with African Dust \u2014 next 10 days

\"\"

Major plume arrives in Islands / Caribbean this weekend, and more swirling into the central Atlantic in 8-10 days, too.

During the months of June and July, winds over the African continent pick up sand and dust from the deserts and loft it into the boundary layer around 850-700 mb creating a stable and warm layer. The prevailing trade winds (east to west) in the tropics capture the dust layers and move them along into the Atlantic and eventually the Caribbean and even the Gulf of Mexico to provide beautiful & colorful sunsets for folks in Florida and Texas.

Zooming out to North Africa \u2014 origin of the Saharan Air Layers + Sand/Dust

\"\"

Satellite Imagery \u2014 little active convection across the entire Atlantic tropics

\"\"
\"\"

Gulf of Mexico does have some showers and storms along the Florida coast

\"\"

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin \u2014 Invest 95E at 90%

\"\"

Looks like our next Tropical Storm will form on Wednesday

\"\"

Nothing more than \u201cfish mixing\u201d and something for NHC to do while the Atlantic remains dormant.

\"\"

Max winds of 50-60 mph / 995 mb central pressure \u2014> next name is Douglas

\"\"

Western Pacific Typhoon Season

\"\"

All systems go for powerhouse Invest 95W \u2014> Super Typhoon in 5-days

\"\"

ECMWF 18z develops Invest 95W into a Super Typhoon by Day 6

\"\"

Some Google Deep Mind ensemble members in the 890s mb central pressure \u2014> top end Category 5 STY

\"\"

HAFS-A Mesoscale Hurricane Model cranks up 95W \u2014> STY (927 mb) in 5-days

\"\"

Full Physics ECMWF Ensembles | Next 15-days | Active Storm Tracks

\"\"

Invest 96W emerged in the South China Sea \u2014 and is likely to be a classified Tropical Storm, too.

\"\"

Share Weather Trader

Thank you for reaching the end of this post! Hopefully you enjoyed the beautiful weather maps. Please help increase the visibility of Weather Trader on Substack: Share or Like!

Help support this newsletter (nearing post 1,000!)

Weather Map Maker is almost complete (thanks to Claude Max)

\"\"

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Top Story this week in the Global Tropics will be a massive Super Typhoon developing out of the far SE corner of the basin, crossing through the Marianna Islands, and reaching near Taiwan in 10-days. Intensity forecasts show potential for sub-900 mb pressure \u2014> Category 5+

Another weaker Tropical Storm in the South China Sea will quickly develop (Invest 96W) so the next two names Bavi and Maysak are up for grabs.

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:13Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/june-30-2026-tropical-update-tuesday" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "204366217.june-30-2026-tropical-update-tuesday", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/june-30-2026-tropical-update-tuesday", "slug": "june-30-2026-tropical-update-tuesday", "path": "/mp/971/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/971/", "desk_label": "Tropics", "digest": "d0410d13ebee93b7dd24d4f366a41a905d2daa2cf1f98d7ff5e2902cc8e2518d" }