{ "number": 969, "headline": "June 28, 2026 Tropical Update Sunday", "standfirst": "Atlantic not completely a ghost town but very quiet start to July likely", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-06-29", "published": "2026-06-29T01:54:44.374000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Tropical Waves across Africa are not particularly robust

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The Atlantic tropical basin is very quiet for late June, and that\u2019s not surprising in any given year. However, with (Super) El Ni\u00f1o intensifying across the Tropical Pacific, there\u2019s little expectation that tropical storm activity will pick up anytime soon. However, the basin\u2019s overall \u201chealth\u201d or favorability will improve through July into August as the ocean temperatures warm significantly and the impacts of Saharan Air Layers (SAL) and dust subside. Tropical waves will have a better opportunity to maintain low-level circulation as they emerge from the African coast into the \"Main Development Region\u201d (MDR) of Atlantic basin.

Early today GeoColor satellite imagery

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A large plume of Saharan dust pushing through the Caribbean with the characteristic milky hue. The clouds within the SAL are typically puffy cumulus but it is difficult to even produce a shower. The Atlantic is calm with minimal wave heights 3-6 feet at most. Wave height 8 PM ET

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This is newsletter post number 969: Day 179 of 2026. Day 28 of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Good evening! Major data problems from NOAA and ECMWF today, perhaps due to a cyberattack against global weather agency infrastructure. Everything is back on track.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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The Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly across the tropical central and eastern Pacific is full tilt El Ni\u00f1o.

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2026 compared to 2025 for the last 7-days:

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Huge warming in the Pacific \u2026 but cooling in the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere, significantly!

Headline Tropical Cyclone Tracks \u2014 for the next 15-days from ECMWF EPS 12z

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Ghost town in the Atlantic \u2014 whatever develops off the U.S. Southeast coast would be quite weak, and difficult to track in the MSLP field because of the background high pressure (Bermuda High)

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Flagship model: Canada GEM 12z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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HUGE heat dome forms over the Eastern U.S. with a clockwise anti-cyclone in the IVT field \u2014 very strong deep layer ridge.

An area of low pressure should form as part of a cut-off low later in the week off the U.S. East Coast, but wind shear would be unfavorable.

Atlantic Basin Simulated Water Vapor Satellite \u2014 Next 10-days

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Heading into July, the Atlantic basin remains chaotic with many small scale features that do spin cyclonically but are cold-core or result of upper-level troughs.

Tropical waves in the Main Development Region generate convection but none are catching fire.

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

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Fairly decent tropical PWATs in the central Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic, but nothing developing in late-June. Into next week, another Saharan Air Layer scours the MDR clear again.

Atlantic Basin \u2014 Quiet \u2014> almost July 2026 but one feature 10% chance

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Tropical Waves \u2026 multiple across the 2 basins but nothing active in the Atlantic. 50% chance of something in the Eastern Pacific this week. The previous areas of interest did not develop last week.

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Sea Surface Temperatures still below 26\u00b0F reaching well into the MDR (green coloring)

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Warmer than normal in the subtropics due to persistent weak winds and a strong subtropical high pressure (Bermuda high \u2014> Azores high)

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But still cooler than typical for end of June in the MDR

Change in the Mediterranean over the past 10-days due to \u201cHeat Dome\u201d

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23\u00b0C to 24\u00b0C \u2014> 28\u00b0C \u2014 very warm indeed!

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Saharan Air Layer with African Dust \u2014 next 10 days

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During the months of June and July, winds over the African continent pick up sand and dust from the deserts and loft it into the boundary layer around 850-700 mb creating a stable and warm layer. The prevailing trade winds (east to west) in the tropics capture the dust layers and move them along into the Atlantic and eventually the Caribbean and even the Gulf of Mexico to provide beautiful & colorful sunsets for folks in Florida and Texas.

NASA GEOS-5 shows a whopper in the Central Atlantic during next week

Zooming out to North Africa \u2014 origin of the Saharan Air Layers + Sand/Dust

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Satellite Imagery \u2014 little active convection across the entire Atlantic tropics

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Gulf of Mexico is devoid of showers and storms

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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin \u2014 area at 50% this week

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Nothing imminent, but area of convection over the warm waters could become our next tropical storm

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Precipitable Water Next 10-days does show a weak TD/TS formation

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Western Pacific Typhoon Season

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95W is our next area to watch well out in the eastern part of the basin, and models continue to show a powerful typhoon.

Another area (unmarked) of disturbed weather will move through the Philippines and could become a TS/TY in South China Sea into end of week.

ECMWF 12z developed 95W into a Super Typhoon

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926 mb \u2014> Super Typhoon \u2026 close to Category 5. Very large typhoon as its origin is in the deep tropics in the monsoon trough along the equator \u2026 however, ECMWF was been biased way too intense (and large) with Mekkhala, so we\u2019ll tap the brakes on this one for now.

SSTs now in the 28\u00b0C to 30\u00b0C range across the entire Western Pacific up to about 30\u00b0N latitude

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Full Physics ECMWF Ensembles | Next 15-days | Active Storm Tracks

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Long track, powerful Typhoon from Invest 95W \u2014 comes out of the far eastern part of the basin near the Dateline (typical of El Ni\u00f1o summers) \u2014> Lots of ACE

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Tropical Waves across Africa are not particularly robust

The Atlantic tropical basin is very quiet for late June, and that\u2019s not surprising in any given year. However, with (Super) El Ni\u00f1o intensifying across the Tropical Pacific, there\u2019s little expectation that tropical storm activity will pick up anytime soon. However, the basin\u2019s overall \u201chealth\u201d or favorability will improve through July into August as the ocean temperatures warm significantly and the impacts of Saharan Air Layers (SAL) and dust subside. Tropical waves will have a better opportunity to maintain low-level circulation as they emerge from the African coast into the "Main Development Region\u201d (MDR) of Atlantic basin.

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